Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.7 | 14.7 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.2 | 1.5 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colton DowellWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.1 | 9.3 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 1.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.2 | 6.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.2 | 27.2 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 16.0 | 11.3 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 12.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.7 | -4.4 | −18.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.6 | 11.6 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.5 | 4.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.3 | 21.0 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | 1.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | 3.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.8 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | 9.1 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.8 | 1.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.1 | 0.3 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.1 | 10.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.8 | 9.9 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 10.9 | 5.9 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.6 | 17.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 13.0 | 9.8 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.5 | 1.1 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.8 | 7.3 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.2 | 12.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.0 | 25.9 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.0 | 1.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 10.9 | 21.1 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.1 | 13.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 18.6 | 14.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.8 | 7.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse