Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.2 | 2.8 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 27.2 | 14.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.4 | 6.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.6 | 4.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 18.1 | 24.6 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.7 | 15.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.5 | 15.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 17.3 | 23.5 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.0 | 2.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.2 | 20.2 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 3.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.6 | 21.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.2 | 4.3 | −12.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.9 | 2.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 21.4 | 24.6 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.5 | 6.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.7 | 2.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.4 | 5.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | 6.0 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.4 | 7.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.7 | 10.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.4 | 12.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.8 | 0.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.8 | 4.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse