Who to start · 2025-26
Alex DeBrincat vs Brock Nelson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Alex DeBrincat's 2.20.
DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Nelson had 65 in 81 games.
This week DeBrincat has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Nelson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project DeBrincat for 2.3 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 20 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
DeBrincat's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.78, Luck Meter +17, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.060.
Nelson's biggest edges: Scoring chances 58.3%, Faceoffs won 735, High-danger chances 57.1%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alex DeBrincat
2.20
fantasy points per game
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | DeBrincat | Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: DeBrincat vs Nelson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
DeBrincat 1G 4A, 43 SOG · Nelson 7G 6A, 54 SOG
DeBrincat's offensive zone 2–1 · neutral 0–0 · DeBrincat's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18 to 2024-25)
On the ice against each other (DeBrincat's side)
13:38 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from DeBrincat's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–13
- 45.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.8
- 37.9%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | DeBrincat | Nelson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | DET 2–0 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-31 | DET 0–5 COL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-03-25 | DET 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-11-25 | DET 4–2 NYI | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2024-11-21 | DET 2–1 NYI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-22 | DET 1–0 NYI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-03-21 | DET 6–3 NYI | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-02-29 | DET 3–5 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2023-10-30 | DET 4–3 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-02-14 | OTT 3–2 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2023-01-25 | OTT 2–1 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-11-14 | OTT 2–4 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 5S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Alex DeBrincat
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to RWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alex DeBrincat or Brock Nelson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Alex DeBrincat's 2.20. DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Nelson had 65 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alex DeBrincat or Brock Nelson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 20 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have DeBrincat and Nelson done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, DeBrincat's team went 11–7. DeBrincat had 5 points (1 goals) and Nelson had 13 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, DeBrincat or Nelson?
- Against each other, DeBrincat has won 2 and Nelson 1 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →