Who to start · 2025-26
Alex DeBrincat vs Eeli Tolvanen
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alex DeBrincat projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71.
DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Tolvanen had 36 in 78 games.
This week DeBrincat has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Tolvanen has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project DeBrincat for 2.3 ESPN points to Tolvanen's 1.3.
Alex DeBrincat has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
DeBrincat's biggest edges: Fenwick 53.8%, Plus/minus +8, Expected goals 53.1%.
Tolvanen's biggest edges: Hits 187, Ascension score 57, Blocked shots 81.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alex DeBrincat
2.20
fantasy points per game
Eeli Tolvanen
1.71
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Alex DeBrincat has the edge.
| Points per game from | DeBrincat | Tolvanen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.94 | 0.48 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.24 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: DeBrincat vs Tolvanen
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
DeBrincat 6G 7A, 45 SOG · Tolvanen 5G 9A, 38 SOG
DeBrincat blocked 0 of Tolvanen's shots; Tolvanen blocked 2 of DeBrincat's.
On the ice against each other (DeBrincat's side)
9:27 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from DeBrincat's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–3
- 82.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.3–0.0
- 97.3%
- Goals
- 2–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | DeBrincat | Tolvanen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | DET 0–2 NYR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-06 | DET 4–3 SEA | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-11-18 | DET 4–2 SEA | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2025-02-04 | DET 5–4 SEA | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-12 | DET 6–2 SEA | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-02-19 | DET 4–3 SEA | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-24 | DET 4–5 SEA | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-09 | OTT 5–4 SEA | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-07 | OTT 4–8 SEA | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-16 | CHI 3–4 NSH | 0G 2A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-01-01 | CHI 1–6 NSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-12-17 | CHI 2–3 NSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 19 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Alex DeBrincat
2games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 12th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to RWLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Eeli Tolvanen
4games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows the most FP to RWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 8th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.3 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alex DeBrincat or Eeli Tolvanen in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alex DeBrincat projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71. DeBrincat had 85 points in 82 games; Tolvanen had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alex DeBrincat or Eeli Tolvanen?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Alex DeBrincat leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have DeBrincat and Tolvanen done against each other?
- In 19 games against each other in our data, DeBrincat's team went 8–11. DeBrincat had 13 points (6 goals) and Tolvanen had 14 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →