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Who to start · 2025-26

Auston Matthews vs Ryan O'Reilly

Auston MatthewsAuston MatthewsMaple Leafs · CentrevsRyan O'ReillyRyan O'ReillyPredators · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90.

Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.

This week Matthews has 1 game left; O'Reilly has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to O'Reilly's 2.0.

Ryan O'Reilly has the better number in 22 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.

Matthews's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.09, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%, Hardest shot 88.3.

O'Reilly's biggest edges: Luck Meter +52, Goals above expected +1.2, Corsi 52.6%.

Head to head on the dot, Matthews leads O'Reilly 47–43.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Auston Matthews

2.31

fantasy points per game

Ryan O'Reilly

1.90

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMatthewsO'Reilly
Goals (+2)0.790.58
Assists (+1)0.380.57
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.12
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.02
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.360.20
Hits (+0.1)0.070.03
Blocks (+0.5)0.630.38

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Matthews vs O'Reilly

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MatthewsO'Reilly
7Team record in 15 meetings8
19Points in those games12

Matthews 12G 7A, 66 SOG · O'Reilly 8G 4A, 39 SOG

47Faceoffs against each other43

Matthews's offensive zone 11–10 · neutral 20–17 · Matthews's defensive zone 16–16 (2017-18 to 2025-26)

0Hits on each other1
1Shots blocked by the other0

Matthews blocked 1 of O'Reilly's shots; O'Reilly blocked 0 of Matthews's.

0Penalties drawn off the other1
0Goals set up by the other1

Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).

On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)

18:38 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side

Shot attempts
15–28
34.9%
Expected goals
0.8–0.6
56.6%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Auston Matthews and Ryan O'Reilly
DateScoreMatthewsO'Reilly
2025-12-20TOR 3–5 NSH0G 0A 3S0G 1A 3S
2025-10-14TOR 7–4 NSH2G 0A 5S0G 0A 0S
2025-03-22TOR 2–5 NSH0G 2A 3S0G 0A 1S
2024-12-04TOR 3–2 NSH2G 0A 7S0G 0A 0S
2023-12-09TOR 4–0 NSH2G 0A 4S0G 0A 5S
2023-10-28TOR 2–3 NSH0G 1A 4S2G 0A 2S
2022-12-27TOR 5–4 STL0G 1A 5S1G 0A 5S
2022-01-15TOR 6–5 STL1G 1A 8S2G 0A 3S
2022-02-19TOR 3–6 STL0G 0A 2S1G 0A 4S
2019-12-07TOR 5–2 STL2G 0A 4S0G 1A 1S
2019-10-07TOR 2–3 STL0G 0A 3S0G 0A 1S
2019-02-19TOR 2–3 STL1G 0A 2S1G 0A 4S

Latest 12 of 15 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MatthewsO'Reilly

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Auston Matthews

3games (1 left)

2.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to C
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 pts

Ryan O'Reilly

2games (1 left)

2.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 vs MIN
    Opp allows 11th-fewest FP to C
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 pts
    Opp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Auston Matthews or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Auston Matthews or Ryan O'Reilly?
On 2025-26 numbers, Ryan O'Reilly leads in 22 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Matthews and O'Reilly done against each other?
In 15 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 7–8. Matthews had 19 points (12 goals) and O'Reilly had 12 (8 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or O'Reilly?
Against each other, Matthews has won 47 and O'Reilly 43 of their 90 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →