Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Dylan Larkin
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Larkin has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larkin for 2.2 ESPN points to Burns's 0.9.
Dylan Larkin has the better number in 20 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Burns's biggest edges: High-danger chances 56.1%, Scoring chances 55.0%, Luck Meter +60.
Larkin's biggest edges: Ice-time share 33.3%, Ice time per game 20:11, 20+ mph bursts 186.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.37
fantasy points per game
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.29 | 0.92 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Larkin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 4G 4A, 50 SOG · Larkin 3G 8A, 42 SOG
Burns blocked 3 of Larkin's shots; Larkin blocked 2 of Burns's.
On the ice against each other (Burns's side)
10:41 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Burns's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–8
- 63.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.4
- 59.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Larkin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | COL 0–2 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2026-01-31 | COL 5–0 DET | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-04-04 | CAR 3–5 DET | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-03-14 | CAR 4–2 DET | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-04 | CAR 2–1 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-28 | CAR 4–0 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-01-19 | CAR 4–2 DET | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-03-30 | CAR 2–3 DET | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2022-12-13 | CAR 1–0 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-01-04 | SJS 2–6 DET | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2019-12-31 | SJS 0–2 DET | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2019-11-16 | SJS 4–3 DET | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
0.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 3rd-most FP to DLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL0.9 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Dylan Larkin in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Dylan Larkin?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Dylan Larkin leads in 20 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Burns and Larkin done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 9–7. Burns had 8 points (4 goals) and Larkin had 11 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →