Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Dylan Larkin
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Larkin has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larkin for 2.2 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
They split the 35 stats both are ranked on 17–17.
Nelson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 57.1%, Scoring chances 58.3%, Expected goals 60.0%.
Larkin's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.39, Hardest shot 91.7, Faceoff win % 52.9%.
Head to head on the dot, Nelson leads Larkin 41–39.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.00
fantasy points per game
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.92 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.40 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Larkin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 11G 8A, 61 SOG · Larkin 7G 14A, 65 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 18–18 · neutral 10–6 · Nelson's defensive zone 13–15 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 1 of Larkin's shots; Larkin blocked 0 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
8:14 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–6
- 53.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.3
- 32.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Larkin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | COL 0–2 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2026-01-31 | COL 5–0 DET | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-03-25 | COL 5–2 DET | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-25 | NYI 2–4 DET | 0G 1A 6S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-11-21 | NYI 1–2 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-10-22 | NYI 0–1 DET | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-21 | NYI 3–6 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-29 | NYI 5–3 DET | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-30 | NYI 3–4 DET | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-03-04 | NYI 4–1 DET | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-01-27 | NYI 2–0 DET | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-05 | NYI 0–3 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Dylan Larkin in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Dylan Larkin?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 17–17 across 35 stats where both qualify.
- How have Nelson and Larkin done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 13–10. Nelson had 19 points (11 goals) and Larkin had 21 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Larkin?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 41 and Larkin 39 of their 80 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →