Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Bryan Rust's 2.28.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; MacKinnon has 1 left. We project MacKinnon for 2.8 ESPN points to Rust's 1.9.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Blocked shots 71, Shorthanded points 2, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.054.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 681, Transition attempts /60 1.83, Expected goals 59.7%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.17
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 1.32 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.93 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 6G 7A, 40 SOG · MacKinnon 9G 15A, 58 SOG
Rust's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–1 · Rust's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18)
Rust blocked 1 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 0 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
11:01 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–11
- 54.2%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.7
- 43.1%
- Goals
- 2–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | PIT 2–6 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-16 | PIT 7–2 COL | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-03-04 | PIT 1–4 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2024-12-10 | PIT 2–6 COL | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 4A 3S |
| 2024-03-24 | PIT 4–5 COL | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 2A 6S |
| 2023-10-26 | PIT 4–0 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-03-22 | PIT 5–2 COL | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 5S |
| 2023-02-07 | PIT 2–1 COL | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 8S |
| 2022-04-05 | PIT 4–6 COL | 1G 0A 5S | 2G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-02 | PIT 2–3 COL | 0G 0A 7S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2020-01-10 | PIT 4–3 COL | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2018-12-04 | PIT 6–3 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.9 pts
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.8proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.8 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Bryan Rust's 2.28. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 6–9. Rust had 13 points (6 goals) and MacKinnon had 24 (9 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Rust or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Rust has won 0 and MacKinnon 1 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →