Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larkin for 2.2 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Dylan Larkin has the better number in 22 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 186, Hardest shot 91.7, Faceoff win % 52.9%.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, High-danger chances 52.6%, On-ice PDO 1026.
Head to head on the dot, Larkin leads Cates 44–22.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.45
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 4G 4A, 28 SOG · Cates 4G 2A, 16 SOG
Larkin's offensive zone 19–6 · neutral 17–7 · Larkin's defensive zone 8–9 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
Larkin blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 2 of Larkin's.
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
6:39 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–2
- 77.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.0
- 92.7%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | DET 6–3 PHI | 3G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-04-02 | DET 4–2 PHI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2026-03-28 | DET 3–5 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-21 | DET 1–2 PHI | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-18 | DET 6–4 PHI | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-12 | DET 1–4 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-01-25 | DET 3–0 PHI | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-03-25 | DET 0–3 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2023-03-05 | DET 1–3 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-01-21 | DET 1–2 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +12.9 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Dylan Larkin leads in 22 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and Cates done against each other?
- In 10 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 4–6. Larkin had 8 points (4 goals) and Cates had 6 (4 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Larkin or Cates?
- Against each other, Larkin has won 44 and Cates 22 of their 66 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →