Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larkin for 1.8 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Dylan Larkin has the better number in 23 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 789, 20+ mph bursts 186, Penalty minutes 48.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Luck Meter +28, Offensive-zone time 45.2%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.43
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 0.48 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 9G 8A, 56 SOG · Toffoli 6G 6A, 46 SOG
Larkin's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Larkin's defensive zone 0–1 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
9:11 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 12–10
- 54.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.3
- 61.2%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | DET 4–2 SJS | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-02 | DET 3–2 SJS | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-14 | DET 3–6 SJS | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2024-11-18 | DET 4–5 SJS | 1G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-12-23 | DET 2–3 NJD | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-22 | DET 4–0 NJD | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-10-12 | DET 3–4 NJD | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-02-16 | DET 5–2 CGY | 0G 3A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-02-09 | DET 2–1 CGY | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-03-12 | DET 0–3 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2021-11-13 | DET 3–2 MTL | 2G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-10-23 | DET 1–6 MTL | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 0S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 10th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG1.8 pts
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to C
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Dylan Larkin leads in 23 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 7–11. Larkin had 17 points (9 goals) and Toffoli had 12 (6 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Larkin or Toffoli?
- Against each other, Larkin has won 1 and Toffoli 1 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →