Who to start · 2025-26
Eeli Tolvanen vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71.
Tolvanen had 36 points in 78 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Tolvanen has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Tolvanen's 1.3.
John Carlson has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Tolvanen's biggest edges: Hits 187, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010, Blocked shots 81.
Carlson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 0, Fenwick 54.3%, Corsi 54.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Eeli Tolvanen
1.71
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Tolvanen | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.26 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Tolvanen vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Tolvanen 1G 3A, 15 SOG · Carlson 1G 7A, 20 SOG
Tolvanen blocked 0 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 1 of Tolvanen's.
On the ice against each other (Tolvanen's side)
15:40 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27, from Tolvanen's side
- Shot attempts
- 15–24
- 38.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.6
- 54.7%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Tolvanen | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | NYR 5–1 TBL | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-01-27 | SEA 5–1 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-21 | SEA 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-09 | SEA 2–4 WSH | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-01-23 | SEA 0–3 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-14 | SEA 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-11 | SEA 4–1 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-02-15 | NSH 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2021-12-29 | NSH 3–5 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 3A 5S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Eeli Tolvanen
4games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RW
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows the most FP to RW
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 8th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.3 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to D
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Eeli Tolvanen or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71. Tolvanen had 36 points in 78 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Eeli Tolvanen or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Tolvanen and Carlson done against each other?
- In 9 games against each other in our data, Tolvanen's team went 3–6. Tolvanen had 4 points (1 goals) and Carlson had 8 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →