Edgehalla

Who to start · 2025-26

Eeli Tolvanen vs Tom Wilson

Eeli TolvanenEeli TolvanenRangers · Right wingvsTom WilsonTom WilsonCapitals · Right wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71.

Tolvanen had 36 points in 78 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games.

This week Tolvanen has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Wilson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Wilson for 2.3 ESPN points to Tolvanen's 1.3.

Tom Wilson has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Tolvanen's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010, Ascension score 57, Transition attempts /60 1.47.

Wilson's biggest edges: Fenwick 55.8%, High-danger chances 56.3%, Scoring chances 56.3%.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Eeli Tolvanen

1.71

fantasy points per game

Tom Wilson

2.24

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Tom Wilson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromTolvanenWilson
Goals (+2)0.480.78
Assists (+1)0.260.48
Power-play points (+0.5)0.070.08
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.170.20
Hits (+0.1)0.240.25
Blocks (+0.5)0.490.44

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Tolvanen vs Wilson

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

TolvanenWilson
1Team record in 7 meetings6
2Points in those games3

Tolvanen 0G 2A, 14 SOG · Wilson 1G 2A, 11 SOG

1Shots blocked by the other0

Tolvanen blocked 1 of Wilson's shots; Wilson blocked 0 of Tolvanen's.

On the ice against each other (Tolvanen's side)

11:17 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Tolvanen's side

Shot attempts
7–16
30.4%
Expected goals
0.4–0.4
46.9%
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Eeli Tolvanen and Tom Wilson
DateScoreTolvanenWilson
2026-01-27SEA 5–1 WSH0G 0A 4S0G 0A 0S
2025-10-21SEA 1–4 WSH0G 0A 0S1G 0A 5S
2025-03-09SEA 2–4 WSH0G 1A 3S0G 1A 1S
2025-01-23SEA 0–3 WSH0G 0A 0S0G 0A 1S
2024-03-14SEA 1–2 WSH0G 0A 4S0G 0A 1S
2022-02-15NSH 1–4 WSH0G 0A 2S0G 1A 1S
2021-12-29NSH 3–5 WSH0G 1A 1S0G 0A 2S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

TolvanenWilson

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Eeli Tolvanen

4games (1 left)

1.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
    Opp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
  • Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
    Opp allows the most FP to RWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
    Opp allows 8th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
  • Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.3 pts
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)

Tom Wilson

2games (1 left)

2.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 @ CAR
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to RWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ TBLB2B2.3 pts
    Opp allows the most FP to RWSchedule edge −13.3 win%vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Eeli Tolvanen or Tom Wilson in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tom Wilson projects to 2.24 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71. Tolvanen had 36 points in 78 games; Wilson had 62 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Eeli Tolvanen or Tom Wilson?
On 2025-26 numbers, Tom Wilson leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Tolvanen and Wilson done against each other?
In 7 games against each other in our data, Tolvanen's team went 1–6. Tolvanen had 2 points (0 goals) and Wilson had 3 (1 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →