Who to start · 2025-26
Erik Karlsson vs J.T. Miller
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63.
Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Miller had 53 in 68 games.
This week Karlsson has 1 game left; Miller has 1 left. We project Karlsson for 1.9 ESPN points to Miller's 1.8.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Luck Meter +53, Goals above expected +2.1, Plus/minus +8.
Miller's biggest edges: Hits 123, Penalty minutes 33, Blocked shots 34.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
J.T. Miller
1.63
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Karlsson | Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.70 | 0.44 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Miller
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Karlsson 2G 18A, 50 SOG · Miller 10G 16A, 54 SOG
Karlsson blocked 1 of Miller's shots; Miller blocked 2 of Karlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)
21:26 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 19–25
- 43.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–1.0
- 55.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Karlsson | Miller |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | PIT 2–3 NYR | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-01-31 | PIT 6–5 NYR | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-10-11 | PIT 1–6 NYR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-10-07 | PIT 3–0 NYR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-02-23 | PIT 3–5 NYR | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-07 | PIT 3–2 NYR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-26 | PIT 3–4 VAN | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-02-27 | PIT 4–3 VAN | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2024-01-11 | PIT 3–4 VAN | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 3A 1S |
| 2023-03-23 | SJS 2–7 VAN | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2022-12-27 | SJS 2–6 VAN | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-12-07 | SJS 5–6 VAN | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.9 pts
J.T. Miller
4games (1 left)
1.8proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.8 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Erik Karlsson or J.T. Miller in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to J.T. Miller's 1.63. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Miller had 53 in 68 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Erik Karlsson or J.T. Miller?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Karlsson and Miller done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 8–15. Karlsson had 20 points (2 goals) and Miller had 26 (10 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →