Who to start · 2025-26
Erik Karlsson vs Morgan Rielly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61.
Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Rielly had 36 in 78 games.
This week Karlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Rielly has 1 left. We project Rielly for 1.5 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Karlsson's biggest edges: Plus/minus +8, Hardest shot 96.6, Expected goals 52.2%.
Rielly's biggest edges: Ascension score 60, Blocked shots 114, Transition attempts /60 0.63.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Morgan Rielly
1.61
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Karlsson | Rielly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.43 | 0.67 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Rielly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Karlsson 4G 11A, 53 SOG · Rielly 2G 15A, 30 SOG
Karlsson blocked 4 of Rielly's shots; Rielly blocked 1 of Karlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)
19:39 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 24–15
- 61.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.9
- 45.0%
- Goals
- 0–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Karlsson | Rielly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | PIT 3–6 TOR | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2–7 TOR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2025-11-03 | PIT 3–4 TOR | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5–6 TOR | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5–2 TOR | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-12 | PIT 2–4 TOR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-08 | PIT 2–3 TOR | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2023-12-16 | PIT 0–7 TOR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-11-25 | PIT 3–2 TOR | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-10-27 | SJS 4–3 TOR | 1G 2A 7S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2021-11-26 | SJS 1–4 TOR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-10-22 | SJS 5–3 TOR | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 16th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Erik Karlsson or Morgan Rielly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Rielly's 1.61. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Rielly had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Erik Karlsson or Morgan Rielly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Karlsson and Rielly done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 6–12. Karlsson had 15 points (4 goals) and Rielly had 17 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →