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Who to start · 2025-26

Erik Karlsson vs Nathan MacKinnon

Erik KarlssonErik KarlssonPenguins · DefencevsNathan MacKinnonNathan MacKinnonAvalanche · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96.

Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.

This week Karlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.

Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 28 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Karlsson's biggest edges: Net penalties drawn /60 0.00, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.083, Shorthanded points 0.

MacKinnon's biggest edges: Hits 64, Penalty minutes 39, Blocked shots 35.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Erik Karlsson

1.96

fantasy points per game

Nathan MacKinnon

3.32

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromKarlssonMacKinnon
Goals (+2)0.381.49
Assists (+1)0.700.87
Power-play points (+0.5)0.190.21
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.240.46
Hits (+0.1)0.030.09
Blocks (+0.5)0.430.21

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

Erik Karlsson and Nathan MacKinnon have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

KarlssonMacKinnon

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Erik Karlsson

2games (1 left)

1.3proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
    Opp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 pts
    Opp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)

Nathan MacKinnon

2games (1 left)

2.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
    Opp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 pts
    Opp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Erik Karlsson or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Erik Karlsson's 1.96. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Erik Karlsson or Nathan MacKinnon?
On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 28 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →