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Who to start · 2025-26

Ivan Provorov vs Jake Guentzel

Ivan ProvorovIvan ProvorovBlue Jackets · DefencevsJake GuentzelJake GuentzelLightning · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56.

Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Guentzel had 88 in 81 games.

This week Provorov has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Guentzel has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Guentzel for 1.5 ESPN points to Provorov's 1.1.

Jake Guentzel has the better number in 28 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.

Provorov's biggest edges: Hardest shot 97.1, Faceoffs won 0, Net penalties drawn /60 −0.27.

Guentzel's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 44.0%, Offensive-zone start % 63.0%, Penalty minutes 61.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Ivan Provorov

1.56

fantasy points per game

Jake Guentzel

2.33

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromProvorovGuentzel
Goals (+2)0.220.94
Assists (+1)0.270.62
Power-play points (+0.5)0.030.19
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.190.27
Hits (+0.1)0.030.05
Blocks (+0.5)0.820.25

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

Ivan Provorov and Jake Guentzel have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

ProvorovGuentzel

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Ivan Provorov

2games (1 left)

1.1proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 vs BUF
    Opp allows 11th-most FP to DLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.1 pts
    Opp allows 2nd-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)

Jake Guentzel

2games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
    Opp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Ivan Provorov or Jake Guentzel in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.21 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56. Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Guentzel had 88 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Ivan Provorov or Jake Guentzel?
On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 28 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →