Who to start · 2025-26
Ivan Provorov vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56.
Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Provorov has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Provorov's 1.1.
John Carlson has the better number in 19 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Provorov's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.060, 20+ mph bursts 56, Blocked shots 134.
Carlson's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 43.4%, Offensive-zone start % 52.0%, Luck Meter +52.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ivan Provorov
1.56
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.14
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Provorov | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.27 | 0.65 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.82 | 0.75 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Provorov vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Provorov 5G 7A, 61 SOG · Carlson 5G 29A, 81 SOG
Provorov blocked 8 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 4 of Provorov's.
On the ice against each other (Provorov's side)
8:57 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Provorov's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–10
- 37.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.6
- 6.3%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Provorov | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | CBJ 1–5 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2025-10-24 | CBJ 1–5 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2025-04-12 | CBJ 7–0 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-12 | CBJ 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-02 | CBJ 2–7 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-12-21 | CBJ 2–3 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2023-11-18 | CBJ 3–4 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-04 | CBJ 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-12-07 | PHI 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2022-11-23 | PHI 2–3 WSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2022-04-12 | PHI 2–9 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-02-26 | PHI 2–1 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 33 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ivan Provorov
2games (1 left)
1.1proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 11th-most FP to DLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.1 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ivan Provorov or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56. Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ivan Provorov or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 19 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Provorov and Carlson done against each other?
- In 33 games against each other in our data, Provorov's team went 11–22. Provorov had 12 points (5 goals) and Carlson had 34 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →