Who to start · 2025-26
Ivan Provorov vs Morgan Rielly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56.
Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Rielly had 36 in 78 games.
This week Provorov has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Rielly has 1 left. We project Rielly for 1.5 ESPN points to Provorov's 1.1.
Ivan Provorov has the better number in 16 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Provorov's biggest edges: Plus/minus +14, Hardest shot 97.1, Expected goals 51.5%.
Rielly's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 43.7%, Offensive-zone start % 67.6%, Top skating speed 22.7.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 1 PPP, 2 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ivan Provorov
1.56
fantasy points per game
Morgan Rielly
1.60
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Morgan Rielly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Provorov | Rielly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.82 | 0.73 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Provorov vs Rielly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Provorov 4G 9A, 62 SOG · Rielly 1G 12A, 53 SOG
Provorov blocked 3 of Rielly's shots; Rielly blocked 2 of Provorov's.
On the ice against each other (Provorov's side)
28:47 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Provorov's side
- Shot attempts
- 29–37
- 43.9%
- Expected goals
- 1.6–1.1
- 57.9%
- Goals
- 3–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Provorov | Rielly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | CBJ 1–2 TOR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-20 | CBJ 3–2 TOR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-29 | CBJ 6–3 TOR | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-04-05 | CBJ 0–5 TOR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2025-01-22 | CBJ 5–1 TOR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-22 | CBJ 6–2 TOR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-12-29 | CBJ 6–5 TOR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 3A 2S |
| 2023-12-23 | CBJ 1–4 TOR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-12-14 | CBJ 6–5 TOR | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-01-08 | PHI 2–6 TOR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2022-11-02 | PHI 2–5 TOR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2022-04-19 | PHI 2–5 TOR | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 23 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ivan Provorov
2games (1 left)
1.1proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 11th-most FP to DLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.1 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Morgan Rielly
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 16th-most FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.5 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ivan Provorov or Morgan Rielly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Morgan Rielly projects to 1.61 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56. Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Rielly had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ivan Provorov or Morgan Rielly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Ivan Provorov leads in 16 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Provorov and Rielly done against each other?
- In 23 games against each other in our data, Provorov's team went 12–11. Provorov had 13 points (4 goals) and Rielly had 13 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →