Who to start · 2025-26
Ivan Provorov vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56.
Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Provorov has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Provorov's 1.1.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 22 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Provorov's biggest edges: Plus/minus +14, On-ice PDO 1012, Goals above expected +0.7.
Hertl's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 47.7%, Hits 114, Offensive-zone start % 61.8%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ivan Provorov
1.56
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Provorov | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.22 | 0.59 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.82 | 0.27 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Provorov vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Provorov 1G 3A, 22 SOG · Hertl 5G 8A, 27 SOG
Provorov blocked 2 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 1 of Provorov's.
On the ice against each other (Provorov's side)
7:37 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Provorov's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–8
- 46.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.3
- 24.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Provorov | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | CBJ 3–5 VGK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2025-12-13 | CBJ 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-13 | CBJ 0–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-01-30 | CBJ 2–1 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-29 | PHI 4–3 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 2G 1A 2S |
| 2022-10-23 | PHI 0–3 SJS | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2021-12-30 | PHI 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2019-12-28 | PHI 1–6 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2018-11-03 | PHI 3–4 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2018-10-09 | PHI 2–8 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2017-11-28 | PHI 1–3 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2017-10-04 | PHI 5–3 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ivan Provorov
2games (1 left)
1.1proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 11th-most FP to DLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.1 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ivan Provorov or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56. Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ivan Provorov or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 22 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Provorov and Hertl done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Provorov's team went 3–9. Provorov had 4 points (1 goals) and Hertl had 13 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →