Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Mikhail Sergachev
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mikhail Sergachev projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Sergachev had 59 in 78 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Sergachev has 2 left with 2 tough matchups. We project Sergachev for 3.0 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Mikhail Sergachev has the better number in 17 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 54.5%, On-ice PDO 1009, Transition attempts /60 0.96.
Sergachev's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.062, 20+ mph bursts 87, Shorthanded points 2.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Mikhail Sergachev
2.15
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mikhail Sergachev has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Sergachev |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.81 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Sergachev
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 3G 17A, 84 SOG · Sergachev 4G 8A, 37 SOG
Carlson blocked 3 of Sergachev's shots; Sergachev blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
5:28 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–4
- 60.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.1
- 46.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Sergachev |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | ANA 4–1 UTA | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-02-09 | WSH 4–5 UTA | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-11-18 | WSH 6–2 UTA | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-03-30 | WSH 1–5 TBL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-11-13 | WSH 3–6 TBL | 0G 0A 3S | 2G 2A 3S |
| 2022-11-11 | WSH 5–1 TBL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-04-06 | WSH 4–3 TBL | 2G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2021-11-01 | WSH 2–3 TBL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-10-16 | WSH 1–2 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2019-12-21 | WSH 3–1 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-12-14 | WSH 5–2 TBL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-11-29 | WSH 4–3 TBL | 0G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 25 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Mikhail Sergachev
3games (2 left)
3.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Arvid Soderblom (.880)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ CBJ1.5 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ NYRB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Mikhail Sergachev in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mikhail Sergachev projects to 2.15 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Sergachev had 59 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Mikhail Sergachev?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mikhail Sergachev leads in 17 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Sergachev done against each other?
- In 25 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 13–12. Carlson had 20 points (3 goals) and Sergachev had 12 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →