Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Buchnevich has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 33 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Top skating speed 24.8, Plus/minus +57, Transition attempts /60 1.83.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.022, Blocked shots 40.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.46 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 10G 21A, 100 SOG · Buchnevich 7G 11A, 54 SOG
MacKinnon's offensive zone 0–1 · neutral 0–1 · MacKinnon's defensive zone 4–0 (2017-18 to 2024-25)
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
18:40 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 22–12
- 64.7%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–0.3
- 80.1%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | COL 3–1 STL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-04-05 | COL 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-31 | COL 6–1 STL | 2G 2A 7S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-04-05 | COL 4–5 STL | 1G 0A 7S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-29 | COL 1–2 STL | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-02-23 | COL 1–3 STL | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-01-31 | COL 5–0 STL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-19 | COL 4–3 STL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-12-29 | COL 2–1 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-11 | COL 2–8 STL | 0G 1A 6S | 3G 0A 6S |
| 2023-11-01 | COL 4–1 STL | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-02-18 | COL 4–1 STL | 0G 2A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 25 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALOpp allows 11th-most FP to LWLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 33 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 25 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 16–9. MacKinnon had 31 points (10 goals) and Buchnevich had 18 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, MacKinnon or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, MacKinnon has won 4 and Buchnevich 2 of their 6 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →