Who to start · 2025-26
Nathan MacKinnon vs Thomas Harley
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Thomas Harley's 1.82.
MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Harley had 36 in 70 games.
This week MacKinnon has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Harley has 1 left. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Harley's 2.2.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 29 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.3, Corsi 57.6%, Fenwick 56.0%.
Harley's biggest edges: Blocked shots 148, Forecheck xG /60 0.38, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.105.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Thomas Harley
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | MacKinnon | Harley |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.49 | 0.16 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.87 | 0.40 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.46 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.99 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: MacKinnon vs Harley
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
MacKinnon 16G 20A, 115 SOG · Harley 3G 9A, 34 SOG
MacKinnon blocked 3 of Harley's shots; Harley blocked 6 of MacKinnon's.
On the ice against each other (MacKinnon's side)
19:06 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from MacKinnon's side
- Shot attempts
- 20–8
- 71.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.7–0.8
- 45.7%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | MacKinnon | Harley |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | COL 2–0 DAL | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-18 | COL 1–2 DAL | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-03-06 | COL 5–4 DAL | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-11 | COL 4–5 DAL | 1G 2A 4S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-05-03 · PO | COL 2–4 DAL | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-05-01 · PO | COL 7–4 DAL | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-28 · PO | COL 2–6 DAL | 1G 1A 7S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-26 · PO | COL 4–0 DAL | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-04-23 · PO | COL 1–2 DAL | 0G 0A 9S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-04-21 · PO | COL 3–4 DAL | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2025-04-19 · PO | COL 5–1 DAL | 2G 1A 7S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-03-16 | COL 4–3 DAL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 25 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Thomas Harley
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs STLOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Joel Hofer (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ NSHB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 14th-most FP to DSchedule edge −12.9 win%Likely vs Juuse Saros (.893)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Nathan MacKinnon or Thomas Harley in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Thomas Harley's 1.82. MacKinnon had 127 points in 80 games; Harley had 36 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Nathan MacKinnon or Thomas Harley?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 29 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have MacKinnon and Harley done against each other?
- In 25 games against each other in our data, MacKinnon's team went 12–13. MacKinnon had 36 points (16 goals) and Harley had 12 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →