Who to start · 2025-26
Pavel Buchnevich vs Tage Thompson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tage Thompson projects to 2.26 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30.
Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games.
This week Buchnevich has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Thompson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Thompson for 2.6 ESPN points to Buchnevich's 1.5.
Tage Thompson has the better number in 30 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Sequence xG 52.5%, Expected goals 52.5%, Forecheck xG /60 0.31.
Thompson's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.8, Luck Meter +28, 20+ mph bursts 176.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Pavel Buchnevich
1.30
fantasy points per game
Tage Thompson
2.26
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tage Thompson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Buchnevich | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.46 | 0.93 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Buchnevich vs Thompson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Buchnevich 3G 9A, 28 SOG · Thompson 3G 3A, 42 SOG
Buchnevich's offensive zone 1–0 · neutral 0–0 · Buchnevich's defensive zone 0–0 (2024-25)
On the ice against each other (Buchnevich's side)
13:05 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Buchnevich's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–13
- 38.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.3
- 54.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Buchnevich | Thompson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | STL 2–4 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-06 | STL 3–0 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-29 | STL 2–4 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-02-10 | STL 3–1 BUF | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2022-11-23 | STL 2–6 BUF | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-04-14 | STL 6–2 BUF | 1G 2A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-02-25 | STL 5–3 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 8S |
| 2021-04-27 | NYR 3–1 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2021-04-25 | NYR 6–3 BUF | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2021-04-03 | NYR 2–3 BUF | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-04-01 | NYR 3–2 BUF | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2021-03-22 | NYR 5–3 BUF | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 16 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Pavel Buchnevich
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DALLikely vs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −13.4 win%Likely vs Scott Wedgewood (.921)
Tage Thompson
2games (1 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.6 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Pavel Buchnevich or Tage Thompson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tage Thompson projects to 2.26 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Pavel Buchnevich's 1.30. Buchnevich had 48 points in 81 games; Thompson had 81 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Pavel Buchnevich or Tage Thompson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tage Thompson leads in 30 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Buchnevich and Thompson done against each other?
- In 16 games against each other in our data, Buchnevich's team went 9–7. Buchnevich had 12 points (3 goals) and Thompson had 6 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Buchnevich or Thompson?
- Against each other, Buchnevich has won 1 and Thompson 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →