Who to start · 2025-26
Ryan O'Reilly vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90.
O'Reilly had 74 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week O'Reilly has 1 game left; Aho has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 4.0 ESPN points to O'Reilly's 1.7.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Luck Meter +50, Blocked shots 66, On-ice PDO 1023.
Aho's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 68.8%, Hits 63, Fenwick 60.3%.
Head to head on the dot, O'Reilly leads Aho 30–24.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
1.96
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | O'Reilly | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.17 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: O'Reilly vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
O'Reilly 7G 9A, 33 SOG · Aho 10G 9A, 40 SOG
O'Reilly's offensive zone 7–4 · neutral 11–9 · O'Reilly's defensive zone 12–11 (2018-19 to 2025-26)
O'Reilly blocked 1 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 0 of O'Reilly's.
On the ice against each other (O'Reilly's side)
6:56 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from O'Reilly's side
- Shot attempts
- 13–7
- 65.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–0.6
- 60.9%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | O'Reilly | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-17 | NSH 1–4 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 2G 1A 4S |
| 2025-12-06 | NSH 3–6 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-25 | NSH 3–1 CAR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-12-23 | NSH 5–2 CAR | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-12-27 | NSH 2–5 CAR | 1G 1A 5S | 1G 3A 2S |
| 2023-12-15 | NSH 6–5 CAR | 1G 2A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-12-01 | STL 4–6 CAR | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-03-26 | STL 2–7 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2021-11-13 | STL 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2020-02-04 | STL 6–3 CAR | 0G 3A 0S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2019-03-01 | STL 2–5 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2018-11-06 | STL 4–1 CAR | 3G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
1.7proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL1.7 ptsSchedule edge +12.4 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)
Sebastian Aho
3games (2 left)
4.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSH1.8 ptsvs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 5th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.1 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ryan O'Reilly or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan O'Reilly's 1.90. O'Reilly had 74 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ryan O'Reilly or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have O'Reilly and Aho done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, O'Reilly's team went 5–9. O'Reilly had 16 points (7 goals) and Aho had 19 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, O'Reilly or Aho?
- Against each other, O'Reilly has won 30 and Aho 24 of their 54 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →