Who to start · 2025-26
Sebastian Aho vs Vladimir Tarasenko
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Vladimir Tarasenko's 1.52.
Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Tarasenko had 47 in 75 games.
This week Aho has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Tarasenko has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Tarasenko's 1.2.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 27 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Aho's biggest edges: Corsi 61.5%, Fenwick 60.3%, Scoring chances 57.5%.
Tarasenko's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.0, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.37, Luck Meter +35.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Sebastian Aho
2.03
fantasy points per game
Vladimir Tarasenko
1.52
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Aho | Tarasenko |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.67 | 0.32 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Aho vs Tarasenko
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Aho 5G 7A, 42 SOG · Tarasenko 1G 8A, 34 SOG
Aho blocked 1 of Tarasenko's shots; Tarasenko blocked 0 of Aho's.
On the ice against each other (Aho's side)
1:55 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Aho's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–0
- 100.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.0
- 100.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Aho | Tarasenko |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | CAR 4–3 MIN | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-04-04 | CAR 3–5 DET | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-03-14 | CAR 4–2 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-04 | CAR 2–1 DET | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-14 | CAR 4–0 FLA | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-12-12 | CAR 4–1 OTT | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2023-10-11 | CAR 5–3 OTT | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-03-23 | CAR 1–2 NYR | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-03-21 | CAR 3–2 NYR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-02-11 | CAR 2–6 NYR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-12-01 | CAR 6–4 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2022-03-26 | CAR 7–2 STL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Vladimir Tarasenko
2games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NSHOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Juuse Saros (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs BOS1.2 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +12.8 win%Likely vs Michael DiPietro (1.000)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Sebastian Aho or Vladimir Tarasenko in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Vladimir Tarasenko's 1.52. Aho had 80 points in 79 games; Tarasenko had 47 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Sebastian Aho or Vladimir Tarasenko?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 27 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Aho and Tarasenko done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Aho's team went 11–6. Aho had 12 points (5 goals) and Tarasenko had 9 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →