Draw Duel
Austin Czarnik faceoff stats, 2023-24
DET · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
42.5%
90%: 36.8%–48.4% vs an average regular, on 204 draws since 2023-24
2023-24 FO%
49.0%
100 won of 204 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
49.5% / 49.0%
109 strong-side, 49 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Czarnik wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2023-24 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 13 | 8 | 61.5% |
| OZ right | 47 | 22 | 46.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| Centre | 46 | 22 | 47.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| NZ right (def.) | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| DZ left | 25 | 11 | 44.0% |
| DZ right | 44 | 22 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R34.5%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L34.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R35.4%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L35.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L35.9%
- Jack Drury NSH · L35.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L55.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L55.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L54.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L52.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L52.0%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R51.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 49.0% 204 | 48.2% 199 | 80.0% 5 | — 0 | 50.0% 60 | 49.3% 75 | 47.8% 69 | 49.5% 109 | 49.0% 49 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gustafsson | 4–5 | 44.4% | 42.5% | 42.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Tyson Jost | 3–4 | 42.9% | 47.6% | 47.6% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Peyton Krebs | 4–3 | 57.1% | 46.5% | 46.7% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| John Beecher | 2–4 | 33.3% | 43.4% | 43.3% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Jeff Carter | 3–3 | 50.0% | 36.7% | 36.9% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Frederick Gaudreau | 3–3 | 50.0% | 47.1% | 47.1% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 5–0 | 100.0% | 48.6% | 49.1% | unusual (z 2.3) |
| Casey Cizikas | 3–2 | 60.0% | 38.4% | 38.6% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Christian Dvorak | 2–3 | 40.0% | 39.1% | 39.1% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Lars Eller | 3–2 | 60.0% | 40.8% | 41.0% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Jack McBain | 2–2 | 50.0% | 43.7% | 43.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Noel Acciari | 1–3 | 25.0% | 39.2% | 39.1% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-16 | @ MTL | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2024-04-15 | vs MTL | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-13 | @ TOR | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2024-04-11 | @ PIT | 5 | 11 | 45.5% |
| 2024-04-09 | vs WSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-07 | vs BUF | 5 | 12 | 41.7% |
| 2024-04-05 | vs NYR | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2024-04-01 | @ TBL | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2024-03-30 | @ FLA | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2024-03-26 | @ WSH | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Austin Czarnik's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Austin Czarnik's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Austin Czarnik win tonight?
When Austin Czarnik has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Austin Czarnik better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.