Draw Duel
Jeff Carter faceoff stats, 2023-24
PIT · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
53.9%
90%: 49.5%–58.3% vs an average regular, on 424 draws since 2023-24
2023-24 FO%
62.5%
265 won of 424 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
62.3% / 62.8%
310 strong-side, 78 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Carter wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2023-24 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 24 | 13 | 54.2% |
| OZ right | 69 | 44 | 63.8% |
| NZ left (att.) | 7 | 5 | 71.4% |
| NZ right (att.) | 12 | 7 | 58.3% |
| Centre | 36 | 23 | 63.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 9 | 7 | 77.8% |
| NZ right (def.) | 14 | 8 | 57.1% |
| DZ left | 38 | 24 | 63.2% |
| DZ right | 215 | 134 | 62.3% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R45.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L45.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R46.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L46.7%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R46.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L46.9%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L66.4%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L66.1%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L65.0%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L63.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L63.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R62.8%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 62.5% 424 | 65.6% 262 | 68.3% 63 | 50.5% 99 | 61.3% 93 | 64.1% 78 | 62.5% 253 | 62.3% 310 | 62.8% 78 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 12–4 | 75.0% | 49.3% | 50.1% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Nick Paul | 7–5 | 58.3% | 53.6% | 53.7% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Aleksander Barkov | 7–4 | 63.6% | 49.3% | 49.6% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Cole Sillinger | 5–5 | 50.0% | 58.1% | 58.0% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Sean Monahan | 7–3 | 70.0% | 53.1% | 53.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Brock Nelson | 7–1 | 87.5% | 56.2% | 56.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.8) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 6–2 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.5% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Pavel Zacha | 5–3 | 62.5% | 54.0% | 54.2% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Dylan Strome | 4–4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 51.0% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| John Tavares | 3–5 | 37.5% | 51.7% | 51.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 7–1 | 87.5% | 52.1% | 52.6% | unusual (z 2.0) |
| Kyle MacLean | 6–1 | 85.7% | 56.1% | 56.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-17 | @ NYI | 17 | 21 | 81.0% |
| 2024-04-15 | vs NSH | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2024-04-13 | vs BOS | 7 | 13 | 53.8% |
| 2024-04-11 | vs DET | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2024-04-08 | @ TOR | 6 | 7 | 85.7% |
| 2024-04-06 | vs TBL | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2024-04-04 | @ WSH | 10 | 14 | 71.4% |
| 2024-04-02 | @ NJD | 8 | 12 | 66.7% |
| 2024-04-01 | @ NYR | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 2024-03-30 | @ CBJ | 5 | 15 | 33.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Jeff Carter's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Jeff Carter's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Jeff Carter win tonight?
When Jeff Carter has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Jeff Carter better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.