Draw Duel
Calle Jarnkrok faceoff stats, 2025-26
TOR · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
43.7%
90%: 38.5%–49.1% vs an average regular, on 217 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
48.3%
28 won of 58 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
48.7% / 50.0%
39 strong-side, 14 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Jarnkrok wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 7 | 2 | 28.6% |
| OZ right | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (def.) | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| NZ right (def.) | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| DZ left | 4 | 3 | 75.0% |
| DZ right | 28 | 10 | 35.7% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.0%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 48.3% 58 | 50.0% 30 | — 0 | 46.4% 28 | 33.3% 12 | 70.6% 17 | 41.4% 29 | 48.7% 39 | 50.0% 14 |
| 2024-25 | 22.2% 9 | 25.0% 8 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 20.0% 5 | 33.3% 3 | 14.3% 7 | 100.0% 1 |
| 2023-24 | 49.2% 132 | 53.7% 82 | 10.0% 10 | 50.0% 40 | 41.5% 53 | 66.7% 39 | 42.5% 40 | 44.4% 90 | 47.1% 17 |
| Playoffs (all) | 50.0% 18 | 50.0% 14 | 50.0% 2 | 50.0% 2 | 44.4% 9 | 75.0% 4 | 40.0% 5 | 46.7% 15 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat | 4–6 | 40.0% | 39.1% | 39.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Cole Sillinger | 2–4 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 46.2% | normal luck (z -0.6) |
| Sebastian Aho | 3–3 | 50.0% | 42.6% | 42.7% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 3–2 | 60.0% | 49.5% | 49.6% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Marco Rossi | 3–2 | 60.0% | 46.7% | 46.8% | normal luck (z 0.6) |
| Peyton Krebs | 4–1 | 80.0% | 47.4% | 47.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Tim Stützle | 1–4 | 20.0% | 44.2% | 44.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| John Beecher | 2–2 | 50.0% | 43.5% | 43.5% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Ross Colton | 3–1 | 75.0% | 46.2% | 46.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
| Dylan Larkin | 1–3 | 25.0% | 41.6% | 41.5% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Sam Bennett | 2–2 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 47.6% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Pavel Zacha | 1–3 | 25.0% | 42.6% | 42.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | vs DAL | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs FLA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-09 | @ NYI | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-08 | vs WSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ LAK | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 2026-03-30 | @ ANA | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-03-28 | @ STL | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-25 | vs NYR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-21 | @ OTT | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | vs CAR | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Calle Jarnkrok's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Calle Jarnkrok's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Calle Jarnkrok win tonight?
When Calle Jarnkrok has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Calle Jarnkrok better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.