Draw Duel
Conor Geekie faceoff stats, 2025-26
TBL · C · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
46.7%
90%: 42.4%–51.0% vs an average regular, on 253 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
44.9%
31 won of 69 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
53.8% / 21.7%
26 strong-side, 23 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.7 FOW
2026-10-05 vs PHI: 1 draws at 48.8%, range 0–2
Where Geekie wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 18 | 9 | 50.0% |
| OZ right | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| Centre | 21 | 13 | 61.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| DZ right | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R38.1%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L38.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.1%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.6%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L39.8%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L40.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L59.5%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L56.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R56.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 66.7% 9 | 66.7% 9 | — 0 | — 0 | 75.0% 4 | 100.0% 3 | 0.0% 2 | 100.0% 2 | 50.0% 6 |
| 2025-26 | 44.9% 69 | 43.3% 67 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 | 40.0% 25 | 55.6% 27 | 35.3% 17 | 53.8% 26 | 21.7% 23 |
| 2024-25 | 42.4% 172 | 43.1% 167 | 20.0% 5 | — 0 | 47.9% 48 | 33.8% 74 | 50.0% 50 | 51.5% 68 | 39.6% 53 |
| Playoffs (all) | 33.3% 3 | 33.3% 3 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller | 6–6 | 50.0% | 43.7% | 43.9% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Erik Haula | 3–5 | 37.5% | 43.3% | 43.2% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Boone Jenner | 5–3 | 62.5% | 44.1% | 44.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.0) |
| Marco Kasper | 1–6 | 14.3% | 48.1% | 47.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.8) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 3–4 | 42.9% | 49.4% | 49.3% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Parker Kelly | 3–3 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 52.3% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Fraser Minten | 2–3 | 40.0% | 50.8% | 50.7% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Auston Matthews | 1–4 | 20.0% | 37.4% | 37.2% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Adam Fantilli | 1–3 | 25.0% | 47.8% | 47.7% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Sam Carrick | 1–3 | 25.0% | 43.4% | 43.3% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 3–1 | 75.0% | 55.7% | 55.8% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Adam Gaudette | 3–1 | 75.0% | 50.5% | 50.7% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | vs WSH | 4 | 6 | 66.7% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ NYR | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-29 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs DET | 1 | 8 | 12.5% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ BOS | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | @ OTT | 10 | 12 | 83.3% |
| 2026-03-10 | vs CBJ | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-03-08 | @ BUF | 3 | 7 | 42.9% |
| 2026-03-07 | @ TOR | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | @ WPG | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-05 vs PHI likely opponents: Christian Dvorak (44%), Noel Acciari (45%)0.7 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-08 vs MIN likely opponents: Joel Eriksson Ek (51%), Ryan Hartman (51%)0.8 FOW 0–2
- 2026-10-10 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (43%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (39%)0.6 FOW 0–2
FAQ
What is Conor Geekie's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Conor Geekie's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Conor Geekie win tonight?
When Conor Geekie has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Conor Geekie better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.