Draw Duel
Matias Maccelli faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYI · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
—
Only 35 draws in the last four seasons: too few for a rating.
2025-26 FO%
42.9%
3 won of 7 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.0% / 0.0%
6 strong-side, 1 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Maccelli wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| OZ right | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ left | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| DZ right | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R31.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L32.3%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R32.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R33.0%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L33.1%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L33.4%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L52.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L52.2%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L51.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L49.4%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L49.1%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R48.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 42.9% 7 | 42.9% 7 | — 0 | — 0 | 40.0% 5 | 100.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 6 | 0.0% 1 |
| 2024-25 | 50.0% 12 | 50.0% 12 | — 0 | — 0 | 40.0% 5 | 40.0% 5 | 100.0% 2 | 50.0% 6 | 25.0% 4 |
| 2023-24 | 37.5% 16 | 42.9% 14 | — 0 | 0.0% 2 | 37.5% 8 | 40.0% 5 | 33.3% 3 | 28.6% 7 | 66.7% 6 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique | 2–0 | 100.0% | 35.6% | 35.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Ryan McLeod | 1–1 | 50.0% | 40.4% | 40.4% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| J.T. Compher | 0–2 | 0.0% | 41.2% | 41.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Matty Beniers | 0–1 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 36.6% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Logan Morrison | 0–1 | 0.0% | 50.3% | 50.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Luca Del Bel Belluz | 0–1 | 0.0% | 44.4% | 44.3% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Ryan Greene | 1–0 | 100.0% | 45.4% | 45.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Bo Horvat | 1–0 | 100.0% | 28.4% | 28.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.6) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0–1 | 0.0% | 33.7% | 33.6% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Adam Lowry | 0–1 | 0.0% | 37.2% | 37.1% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Dominic Toninato | 1–0 | 100.0% | 38.7% | 38.8% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Colin White | 0–1 | 0.0% | 51.1% | 51.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | vs DET | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-28 | @ DET | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-20 | vs CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-15 | @ CHI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | @ CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-25 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2025-10-11 | @ DET | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | @ EDM | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-30 | @ SEA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-22 | vs ANA | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Matias Maccelli's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matias Maccelli's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matias Maccelli win tonight?
When Matias Maccelli has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matias Maccelli better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.