Draw Duel
Ryan Greene faceoff stats, 2025-26
CHI · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
43.8%
90%: 41.2%–46.3% vs an average regular, on 856 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
42.7%
340 won of 796 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
42.3% / 36.9%
562 strong-side, 130 weak-side draws this season
Next game
5.9 FOW
2026-10-06 vs STL: 12 draws at 47.2%, range 2–9
Where Greene wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 38 | 12 | 31.6% |
| OZ right | 190 | 75 | 39.5% |
| NZ left (att.) | 16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
| Centre | 104 | 54 | 51.9% |
| NZ left (def.) | 20 | 8 | 40.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 21 | 7 | 33.3% |
| DZ left | 56 | 20 | 35.7% |
| DZ right | 335 | 149 | 44.5% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R35.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L35.8%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R36.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L36.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R37.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L37.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L56.8%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L56.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L55.3%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L53.6%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L53.3%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R53.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 40.5% 42 | 43.6% 39 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 | 66.7% 3 | 33.3% 15 | 41.7% 24 | 33.3% 18 | 42.9% 14 |
| 2025-26 | 42.7% 796 | 43.5% 545 | 43.3% 67 | 40.2% 184 | 38.2% 228 | 47.5% 177 | 43.2% 391 | 42.3% 562 | 36.9% 130 |
| 2024-25 | 33.3% 18 | 33.3% 18 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 40.0% 10 | 28.6% 7 | 25.0% 8 | 50.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | 9–7 | 56.3% | 45.3% | 45.7% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Tomas Hertl | 10–6 | 62.5% | 39.9% | 40.6% | a bit unusual (z 1.9) |
| Jonathan Toews | 9–5 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 34.4% | unusual (z 2.4) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 2–12 | 14.3% | 40.6% | 39.9% | unusual (z -2.0) |
| Matt Duchene | 7–7 | 50.0% | 43.8% | 44.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Ryan O'Reilly | 6–8 | 42.9% | 40.7% | 40.8% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Nico Hischier | 4–9 | 30.8% | 37.7% | 37.5% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Brayden Schenn | 8–5 | 61.5% | 42.9% | 43.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.4) |
| Nic Dowd | 6–7 | 46.2% | 43.6% | 43.7% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Leon Draisaitl | 6–6 | 50.0% | 39.1% | 39.4% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 7–5 | 58.3% | 47.0% | 47.3% | normal luck (z 0.8) |
| Justin Sourdif | 8–4 | 66.7% | 49.5% | 49.9% | a bit unusual (z 1.2) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | @ BUF | 8 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 2026-10-01 | @ UTA | 2 | 11 | 18.2% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ VGK | 7 | 17 | 41.2% |
| 2026-04-15 | vs SJS | 7 | 15 | 46.7% |
| 2026-04-13 | vs BUF | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | vs STL | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| 2026-04-09 | vs CAR | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 2026-04-06 | @ SJS | 0 | 6 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ SEA | 3 | 9 | 33.3% |
| 2026-04-02 | @ EDM | 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-06 vs STL likely opponents: Robert Thomas (43%), Mason McTavish (46%)5.9 FOW 2–9
- 2026-10-08 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (38%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (37%)4.9 FOW 2–8
- 2026-10-10 vs CAR likely opponents: Jordan Staal (37%), Sebastian Aho (43%)5.5 FOW 2–9
FAQ
What is Ryan Greene's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Ryan Greene's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Ryan Greene win tonight?
When Ryan Greene has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Ryan Greene better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.