Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Mitch Marner
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mitch Marner projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Marner had 80 in 81 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Marner has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Marner for 2.3 ESPN points to Burns's 0.9.
Mitch Marner has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Burns's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.90, Forecheck xG /60 0.38, Luck Meter +60.
Marner's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.024, Offensive-zone start % 66.6%, Ice time per game 19:57.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 5 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.38
fantasy points per game
Mitch Marner
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Mitch Marner has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Marner |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.27 | 0.52 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.28 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Marner
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 2G 11A, 64 SOG · Marner 4G 19A, 41 SOG
Burns blocked 1 of Marner's shots; Marner blocked 3 of Burns's.
On the ice against each other (Burns's side)
30:58 at 5-on-5 over 7 games, 2025-26, from Burns's side
- Shot attempts
- 33–30
- 52.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–1.4
- 47.1%
- Goals
- 1–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Marner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 · PO | COL 1–2 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-05-24 · PO | COL 3–5 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2026-05-22 · PO | COL 1–3 VGK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | COL 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-04-11 | COL 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-12-27 | COL 6–5 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-31 | COL 4–2 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2025-04-13 | CAR 1–4 TOR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-02-22 | CAR 3–6 TOR | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-09 | CAR 6–3 TOR | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-12-30 | CAR 3–2 TOR | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-25 | CAR 5–3 TOR | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
Latest 12 of 22 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
0.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 3rd-most FP to DLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL0.9 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Mitch Marner
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.3 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Mitch Marner in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Mitch Marner projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Marner had 80 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Mitch Marner?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Mitch Marner leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Burns and Marner done against each other?
- In 22 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 8–14. Burns had 13 points (2 goals) and Marner had 23 (4 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →