Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Dylan Larkin
In 2025-26, Bryan Rust scored 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Larkin has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Larkin's 2.2.
They split the 33 stats both are ranked on 16–16.
Rust's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 63.3%, High-danger chances 51.4%, On-ice PDO 1019.
Larkin's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 789, Transition attempts /60 1.39, Penalty minutes 48.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Larkin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.92 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.22 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Larkin
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 6G 9A, 43 SOG · Larkin 7G 15A, 57 SOG
Rust's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–1 · Rust's defensive zone 0–1 (2019-20 to 2023-24)
Rust blocked 1 of Larkin's shots; Larkin blocked 1 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
15:15 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 17–9
- 65.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.1
- 93.6%
- Goals
- 2–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Larkin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | PIT 4–1 DET | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-01-01 | PIT 4–3 DET | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-12-31 | PIT 2–4 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-13 | PIT 2–3 DET | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-04-11 | PIT 6–5 DET | 1G 2A 4S | 1G 2A 3S |
| 2023-10-18 | PIT 3–6 DET | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 3A 4S |
| 2023-04-08 | PIT 5–1 DET | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-03-28 | PIT 4–7 DET | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2022-12-28 | PIT 4–5 DET | 0G 2A 2S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2022-03-27 | PIT 11–2 DET | 1G 2A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-01-28 | PIT 2–3 DET | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2020-02-16 | PIT 5–1 DET | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 7S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Dylan Larkin in fantasy hockey?
- In 2025-26, Bryan Rust scored 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Dylan Larkin's 2.13. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Larkin had 67 in 74 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Dylan Larkin?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 16–16 across 33 stats where both qualify.
- How have Rust and Larkin done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 10–8. Rust had 15 points (6 goals) and Larkin had 22 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Rust or Larkin?
- Against each other, Rust has won 0 and Larkin 2 of their 2 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →