Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left; Carlson has 1 left. We project Larkin for 2.1 ESPN points to Carlson's 2.1.
John Carlson has the better number in 19 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 186, Penalty minutes 48, Hits 46.
Carlson's biggest edges: High-danger chances 54.5%, Scoring chances 53.1%, Luck Meter +52.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.14
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.75 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 6G 10A, 58 SOG · Carlson 0G 13A, 52 SOG
Larkin blocked 0 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 2 of Larkin's.
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
18:00 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 16–20
- 44.4%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.7
- 34.6%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | DET 3–4 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-12-21 | DET 3–2 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-20 | DET 5–2 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-18 | DET 1–4 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-03-07 | DET 2–5 WSH | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-12-29 | DET 4–2 WSH | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-09 | DET 1–2 WSH | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-26 | DET 3–4 WSH | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2024-02-27 | DET 8–3 WSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-12-19 | DET 3–4 WSH | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-12-31 | DET 1–3 WSH | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2021-11-11 | DET 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.1proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYR
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.1 pts
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
2.1proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYR
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH2.1 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 19 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and Carlson done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 6–14. Larkin had 16 points (6 goals) and Carlson had 13 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →