Who to start · 2025-26
Dylan Larkin vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Larkin has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Larkin for 2.2 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 18 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Larkin's biggest edges: Plus/minus +3, 20+ mph bursts 186, Goals above expected −0.5.
Hertl's biggest edges: High-danger chances 59.2%, Scoring chances 56.7%, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010.
Head to head on the dot, Larkin leads Hertl 45–38.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Dylan Larkin
2.13
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.82
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Dylan Larkin has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larkin | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.92 | 0.59 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larkin vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larkin 3G 8A, 42 SOG · Hertl 7G 6A, 33 SOG
Larkin's offensive zone 18–12 · neutral 14–8 · Larkin's defensive zone 13–18 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Larkin's side)
3:26 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Larkin's side
- Shot attempts
- 2–5
- 28.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.5
- 6.4%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larkin | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | DET 3–4 VGK | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-11-04 | DET 0–1 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-22 | DET 3–6 VGK | 0G 2A 3S | 3G 0A 4S |
| 2025-03-16 | DET 3–0 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-02 | DET 5–3 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-12-07 | DET 5–6 SJS | 1G 0A 4S | 2G 0A 9S |
| 2023-01-24 | DET 3–2 SJS | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2022-11-17 | DET 7–4 SJS | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-01-04 | DET 6–2 SJS | 1G 1A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2019-12-31 | DET 2–0 SJS | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-11-16 | DET 3–4 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2019-03-25 | DET 3–2 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 15 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Dylan Larkin
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Dylan Garand (.948)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs WPG2.2 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Stuart Skinner (.888)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Dylan Larkin or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Dylan Larkin projects to 2.13 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Larkin had 67 points in 74 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Dylan Larkin or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 18 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larkin and Hertl done against each other?
- In 15 games against each other in our data, Larkin's team went 8–7. Larkin had 11 points (3 goals) and Hertl had 13 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Larkin or Hertl?
- Against each other, Larkin has won 45 and Hertl 38 of their 83 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →