Who to start · 2025-26
Ivan Provorov vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56.
Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Provorov has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Provorov's 1.1.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 24 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Provorov's biggest edges: Blocked shots 134, On-ice PDO 1012, Goals above expected +0.7.
Aho's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 48.2%, Offensive-zone start % 68.8%, Fenwick 60.3%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Ivan Provorov
1.56
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.03
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Provorov | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.22 | 0.68 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.82 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Provorov vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Provorov 4G 2A, 34 SOG · Aho 14G 18A, 88 SOG
Provorov blocked 4 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Provorov's.
On the ice against each other (Provorov's side)
13:30 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Provorov's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–9
- 60.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.5
- 52.7%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Provorov | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | CBJ 1–5 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2026-03-31 | CBJ 2–5 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2026-03-17 | CBJ 5–1 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-09 | CBJ 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-23 | CBJ 4–7 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 2A 7S |
| 2024-12-31 | CBJ 4–3 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 6S |
| 2024-12-15 | CBJ 1–4 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2024-11-23 | CBJ 5–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2024-04-07 | CBJ 0–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-02-29 | CBJ 2–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-26 | CBJ 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-03-18 | PHI 4–5 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 3G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 31 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Ivan Provorov
2games (1 left)
1.1proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs BUFOpp allows 11th-most FP to DLikely vs Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.910)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs UTA1.1 ptsOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to DLikely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Ivan Provorov or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ivan Provorov's 1.56. Provorov had 31 points in 82 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Ivan Provorov or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 24 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Provorov and Aho done against each other?
- In 31 games against each other in our data, Provorov's team went 10–21. Provorov had 6 points (4 goals) and Aho had 32 (14 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →