Who to start · 2025-26
Jake Guentzel vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01.
Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Guentzel has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Guentzel's 1.5.
Jake Guentzel has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Guentzel's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1023, Goals above expected +1.6, Luck Meter +40.
Aho's biggest edges: Hardest shot 89.2, Fenwick 60.3%, Hits 63.
Head to head on the dot, Guentzel leads Aho 7–4.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Jake Guentzel
2.20
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Jake Guentzel has the edge.
| Points per game from | Guentzel | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.88 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Guentzel vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Guentzel 9G 15A, 58 SOG · Aho 8G 10A, 54 SOG
Guentzel's offensive zone 4–4 · neutral 2–0 · Guentzel's defensive zone 1–0 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Guentzel blocked 3 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Guentzel's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Guentzel's side)
4:31 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Guentzel's side
- Shot attempts
- 2–6
- 25.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.7
- 4.2%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Guentzel | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | TBL 2–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2026-02-26 | TBL 4–5 CAR | 0G 3A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-12-20 | TBL 6–4 CAR | 2G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-11 | TBL 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-07 | TBL 3–2 CAR | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-11 | TBL 4–1 CAR | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-13 | PIT 2–3 CAR | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-12-21 | PIT 2–1 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-18 | PIT 2–4 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 5S |
| 2023-01-14 | PIT 1–2 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2022-11-29 | PIT 2–3 CAR | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 2A 4S |
| 2022-02-20 | PIT 3–4 CAR | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Jake Guentzel
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Jake Guentzel or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Jake Guentzel projects to 2.20 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Sebastian Aho's 2.01. Guentzel had 88 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Jake Guentzel or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Jake Guentzel leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Guentzel and Aho done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, Guentzel's team went 8–13. Guentzel had 24 points (9 goals) and Aho had 18 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Guentzel or Aho?
- Against each other, Guentzel has won 7 and Aho 4 of their 11 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →