Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Mattias Samuelsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Samuelsson has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Samuelsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
John Carlson has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Power-play share 55.5%, Power-play time per game 2:42, Offensive-zone time 43.4%.
Samuelsson's biggest edges: Hits 132, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.067, 20+ mph bursts 93.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Mattias Samuelsson
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, John Carlson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.34 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.93 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs Samuelsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 0G 7A, 20 SOG · Samuelsson 0G 2A, 10 SOG
Carlson blocked 0 of Samuelsson's shots; Samuelsson blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
13:40 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 16–11
- 59.3%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–0.2
- 83.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | Samuelsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | ANA 6–5 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-01 | WSH 3–4 BUF | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-03-30 | WSH 5–8 BUF | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-01-06 | WSH 3–4 BUF | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-12-14 | WSH 4–2 BUF | 0G 3A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-22 | WSH 4–3 BUF | 0G 2A 7S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-03-25 | WSH 4–3 BUF | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Mattias Samuelsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CBJOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CHI2.0 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Mattias Samuelsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, John Carlson projects to 2.10 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mattias Samuelsson's 2.01. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; Samuelsson had 41 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Mattias Samuelsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, John Carlson leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and Samuelsson done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 4–3. Carlson had 7 points (0 goals) and Samuelsson had 2 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →