Who to start · 2025-26
John Carlson vs Nathan MacKinnon
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games.
This week Carlson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; MacKinnon has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project MacKinnon for 2.2 ESPN points to Carlson's 1.6.
Nathan MacKinnon has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlson's biggest edges: Ascension score 53, Hardest shot 99.8, Blocked shots 106.
MacKinnon's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 455, On-ice PDO 1054, Hits 64.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 8 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Nathan MacKinnon
3.32
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Nathan MacKinnon has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlson | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.37 | 1.49 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.61 | 0.87 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.76 | 0.21 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlson vs MacKinnon
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlson 1G 10A, 28 SOG · MacKinnon 10G 13A, 62 SOG
Carlson's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Carlson's defensive zone 0–1 (2025-26)
Carlson blocked 2 of MacKinnon's shots; MacKinnon blocked 2 of Carlson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlson's side)
3:41 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Carlson's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–6
- 45.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.1
- 55.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlson | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | WSH 2–5 COL | 0G 0A 0S | 2G 1A 10S |
| 2024-11-21 | WSH 1–2 COL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-15 | WSH 5–2 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-13 | WSH 3–6 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 2A 5S |
| 2024-01-24 | WSH 2–6 COL | 0G 0A 2S | 4G 1A 8S |
| 2022-11-19 | WSH 0–4 COL | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2022-04-18 | WSH 3–2 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-10-19 | WSH 6–3 COL | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2020-02-13 | WSH 3–2 COL | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 2A 9S |
| 2019-10-14 | WSH 3–6 COL | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2019-02-07 | WSH 4–3 COL | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2018-11-16 | WSH 3–2 COL | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Nathan MacKinnon
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start John Carlson or Nathan MacKinnon in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Nathan MacKinnon projects to 3.32 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Carlson had 60 points in 71 games; MacKinnon had 127 in 80 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, John Carlson or Nathan MacKinnon?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Nathan MacKinnon leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlson and MacKinnon done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Carlson's team went 7–7. Carlson had 11 points (1 goals) and MacKinnon had 23 (10 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlson or MacKinnon?
- Against each other, Carlson has won 0 and MacKinnon 1 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →