Who to start · 2025-26
Mathew Barzal vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82.
Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Barzal has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Barzal's 1.4.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 21 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.
Barzal's biggest edges: Blocked shots 50, On-ice PDO 1006, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.030.
Aho's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 50.5%, Draw Equity /100 +0.005, Transition attempts /60 1.26.
Head to head on the dot, Aho leads Barzal 25–21.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Mathew Barzal
1.82
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.03
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Barzal | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Barzal vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Barzal 10G 18A, 97 SOG · Aho 19G 18A, 100 SOG
Barzal's offensive zone 4–8 · neutral 11–13 · Barzal's defensive zone 6–4 (2017-18 to 2024-25)
Barzal blocked 2 of Aho's shots; Aho blocked 1 of Barzal's.
On the ice against each other (Barzal's side)
8:06 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Barzal's side
- Shot attempts
- 3–16
- 15.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–1.2
- 23.5%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Barzal | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | NYI 3–4 CAR | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 7S |
| 2025-01-25 | NYI 3–2 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-17 | NYI 0–4 CAR | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-04-30 · PO | NYI 3–6 CAR | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-27 · PO | NYI 3–2 CAR | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-25 · PO | NYI 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-22 · PO | NYI 3–5 CAR | 0G 1A 0S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-04-20 · PO | NYI 1–3 CAR | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-19 | NYI 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-12-23 | NYI 5–4 CAR | 0G 2A 3S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-30 | NYI 5–4 CAR | 1G 3A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-11-04 | NYI 3–4 CAR | 1G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 6S |
Latest 12 of 38 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Mathew Barzal
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 7th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD1.4 ptsOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −12.8 win%Likely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Mathew Barzal or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mathew Barzal's 1.82. Barzal had 72 points in 81 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Mathew Barzal or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 21 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Barzal and Aho done against each other?
- In 38 games against each other in our data, Barzal's team went 13–25. Barzal had 28 points (10 goals) and Aho had 37 (19 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Barzal or Aho?
- Against each other, Barzal has won 21 and Aho 25 of their 46 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →