Draw Duel

Alex Tuch faceoff stats, 2025-26

WSH · R · Right shot · full player page

Model rating

46.5%

90%: 42.7%–50.3% vs an average regular, on 426 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

46.9%

46 won of 98 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

40.6% / 63.2%

69 strong-side, 19 weak-side draws this season

Next game

0.4 FOW

2026-10-07 vs PIT: 1 draws at 49.2%, range 0–1

Where Tuch wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.

Show as a table

Alex Tuch faceoff win % by dot
Dot	Draws	Won	FO%
OZ left	8	3	37.5%
OZ right	28	13	46.4%
NZ left (att.)	2	1	50.0%
NZ right (att.)	3	2	66.7%
Centre	10	6	60.0%
NZ left (def.)	1	1	100.0%
NZ right (def.)	6	3	50.0%
DZ left	12	8	66.7%
DZ right	37	11	29.7%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Claude Giroux OTT · R38.1%
Aatu Räty VAN · L38.4%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R39.0%
J.T. Miller NYR · L39.4%
Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.5%
Auston Matthews TOR · L39.6%

Easiest

Jack Hughes NJD · L59.5%
Noah Ostlund BUF · L59.2%
Trevor Zegras PHI · L58.0%
Danila Yurov MIN · L56.3%
Pavel Buchnevich STL · L56.0%
Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.8%

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
Season	All	EV	PP	PK	OZ	NZ	DZ	Strong	Weak
2026-27	22.2% 9	25.0% 4	0.0% 1	25.0% 4	0.0% 2	100.0% 1	16.7% 6	20.0% 5	25.0% 4
2025-26	46.9% 98	51.6% 62	40.0% 5	38.7% 31	47.1% 34	57.1% 21	41.9% 43	40.6% 69	63.2% 19
2024-25	41.0% 188	39.6% 111	30.8% 26	49.0% 51	34.8% 66	39.1% 46	47.4% 76	43.7% 151	35.3% 17
2023-24	40.0% 105	41.5% 65	16.7% 6	41.2% 34	34.2% 38	34.5% 29	50.0% 38	33.3% 66	70.8% 24
Playoffs (all)	57.7% 26	80.0% 10	50.0% 14	0.0% 2	64.7% 17	60.0% 5	25.0% 4	60.9% 23	33.3% 3

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
Opponent	Record	Raw	Model	Blended	Unusual?
Dylan Larkin	4–5	44.4%	42.8%	42.8%	normal luck (z 0.1)
Nico Hischier	2–6	25.0%	39.2%	39.0%	normal luck (z -0.8)
J.T. Miller	4–4	50.0%	39.9%	40.1%	normal luck (z 0.6)
Phillip Danault	3–5	37.5%	40.8%	40.8%	normal luck (z -0.2)
Fraser Minten	5–2	71.4%	46.6%	46.9%	a bit unusual (z 1.3)
Ridly Greig	2–5	28.6%	46.3%	46.1%	normal luck (z -0.9)
Pavel Zacha	3–3	50.0%	44.2%	44.3%	normal luck (z 0.3)
Adam Fantilli	4–2	66.7%	48.0%	48.3%	normal luck (z 0.9)
Jake Guentzel	3–3	50.0%	51.4%	51.4%	normal luck (z -0.1)
Vincent Trocheck	2–4	33.3%	41.3%	41.2%	normal luck (z -0.4)
Matt Duchene	1–5	16.7%	46.1%	45.8%	a bit unusual (z -1.4)
Macklin Celebrini	1–4	20.0%	49.0%	48.7%	a bit unusual (z -1.3)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
Date	Opp	FOW	Draws	FO%
2026-10-03	@ TBL	0	1	0.0%
2026-10-02	@ CAR	2	8	25.0%
2026-05-18	vs MTL	1	1	100.0%
2026-05-16	@ MTL	1	1	100.0%
2026-05-14	vs MTL	1	1	100.0%
2026-05-12	@ MTL	1	1	100.0%
2026-05-08	vs MTL	0	1	0.0%
2026-05-06	vs MTL	0	1	0.0%
2026-05-01	@ BOS	2	2	100.0%
2026-04-28	vs BOS	0	3	0.0%

Projected faceoffs won

2026-10-07 vs PIT likely opponents: Sidney Crosby (42%), Ben Kindel (55%)0.4 FOW 0–1
2026-10-09 vs NYR likely opponents: J.T. Miller (40%), Mika Zibanejad (47%)0.4 FOW 0–1
2026-10-11 vs SEA likely opponents: Chandler Stephenson (46%), Matty Beniers (50%)0.4 FOW 0–1

FAQ

What is Alex Tuch's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Alex Tuch's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Alex Tuch win tonight?

When Alex Tuch has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Alex Tuch better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.