Draw Duel
Bryan Rust faceoff stats, 2025-26
PIT · R · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
—
Only 41 draws in the last four seasons: too few for a rating.
2025-26 FO%
13.3%
2 won of 15 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
20.0% / 0.0%
5 strong-side, 4 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Rust wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 7 | 4 | 57.1% |
| OZ right | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| NZ left (att.) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| Centre | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| NZ left (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| NZ right (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ left | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R30.3%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R31.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L31.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.5%
- Jack Drury NSH · L31.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L50.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L50.4%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L49.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L47.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L47.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R47.0%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13.3% 15 | 15.4% 13 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | 14.3% 7 | 16.7% 6 | 0.0% 2 | 20.0% 5 | 0.0% 4 |
| 2024-25 | 52.9% 17 | 72.7% 11 | — 0 | 16.7% 6 | 66.7% 9 | 33.3% 3 | 40.0% 5 | 28.6% 7 | 87.5% 8 |
| 2023-24 | 25.0% 8 | 0.0% 3 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 4 | 0.0% 3 | 50.0% 2 | 33.3% 3 | 28.6% 7 | — 0 |
| Playoffs (all) | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes | 2–1 | 66.7% | 50.9% | 51.0% | normal luck (z 0.5) |
| Jordan Martinook | 0–2 | 0.0% | 40.3% | 40.1% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Boone Jenner | 1–1 | 50.0% | 35.3% | 35.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Kevin Stenlund | 2–0 | 100.0% | 30.3% | 30.6% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Nick Bjugstad | 0–2 | 0.0% | 35.9% | 35.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Mark Scheifele | 0–1 | 0.0% | 45.8% | 45.7% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Sean Couturier | 1–0 | 100.0% | 31.4% | 31.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.5) |
| Luke Glendening | 0–1 | 0.0% | 34.5% | 34.4% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| J.T. Compher | 0–1 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 33.1% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Elias Lindholm | 0–1 | 0.0% | 33.9% | 33.8% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Sean Monahan | 0–1 | 0.0% | 39.6% | 39.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Alexander Wennberg | 1–0 | 100.0% | 38.9% | 39.0% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | @ PHI | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-12 | @ WSH | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-26 | @ OTT | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-18 | @ CAR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-16 | @ COL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-14 | @ UTA | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ CAR | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-07 | vs PHI | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| 2026-01-03 | @ DET | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-07 | @ DAL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Bryan Rust's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Bryan Rust's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Bryan Rust win tonight?
When Bryan Rust has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Bryan Rust better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.