Draw Duel
Cole Smith faceoff stats, 2025-26
CHI · R · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
37.8%
90%: 31.8%–44.1% vs an average regular, on 59 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
30.0%
6 won of 20 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
38.5% / 20.0%
13 strong-side, 5 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Smith wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| OZ right | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| Centre | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 0 | 0 | — |
| DZ left | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| DZ right | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R29.9%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L30.6%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R30.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R31.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L31.4%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L31.6%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L50.7%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L50.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L49.2%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L47.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L47.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R46.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | — 0 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 30.0% 20 | 27.8% 18 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 25.0% 8 | 16.7% 6 | 50.0% 6 | 38.5% 13 | 20.0% 5 |
| 2024-25 | 52.9% 17 | 53.3% 15 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 100.0% 1 | 37.5% 8 | 62.5% 8 | 55.6% 9 | 40.0% 5 |
| 2023-24 | 29.4% 17 | 30.8% 13 | — 0 | 25.0% 4 | 30.0% 10 | 20.0% 5 | 50.0% 2 | 12.5% 8 | 50.0% 8 |
| Playoffs (all) | 25.0% 4 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 0.0% 3 | — 0 | 50.0% 2 | 0.0% 2 | 0.0% 1 | 0.0% 2 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Byfield | 1–1 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 46.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Roope Hintz | 2–0 | 100.0% | 32.7% | 33.0% | unusual (z 2.0) |
| J.T. Compher | 1–1 | 50.0% | 40.4% | 40.4% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Alexis Lafrenière | 0–1 | 0.0% | 44.6% | 44.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Hendrix Lapierre | 1–0 | 100.0% | 51.8% | 51.9% | normal luck (z 1.0) |
| Matty Beniers | 1–0 | 100.0% | 46.3% | 46.4% | a bit unusual (z 1.1) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 1–0 | 100.0% | 39.0% | 39.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Logan Cooley | 0–1 | 0.0% | 40.5% | 40.5% | normal luck (z -0.8) |
| Ivan Ivan | 0–1 | 0.0% | 42.7% | 42.6% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Marco Rossi | 0–1 | 0.0% | 35.7% | 35.7% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
| Connor Bedard | 0–1 | 0.0% | 43.9% | 43.8% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Luke Glendening | 0–1 | 0.0% | 34.2% | 34.2% | normal luck (z -0.7) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-06-14 | vs CAR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-05-01 | @ UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-21 | vs UTA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-04 | @ EDM | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-17 | vs BUF | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | @ DAL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-04 | @ DET | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-28 | @ DAL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | vs CHI | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Cole Smith's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Cole Smith's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Cole Smith win tonight?
When Cole Smith has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Cole Smith better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.