Draw Duel
Alexis Lafrenière faceoff stats, 2025-26
NYR · L · Left shot · full player page
Model rating
35.4%
90%: 30.2%–40.9% vs an average regular, on 156 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
23.7%
9 won of 38 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
26.3% / 21.1%
19 strong-side, 19 weak-side draws this season
Next game
0.2 FOW
2026-10-04 vs UTA: 1 draws at 37.1%, range 0–1
Where Lafrenière wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2026-27 and 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 10 | 3 | 30.0% |
| OZ right | 11 | 4 | 36.4% |
| NZ left (att.) | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Centre | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ left (def.) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| NZ right (def.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| DZ left | 4 | 1 | 25.0% |
| DZ right | 4 | 0 | 0.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R27.8%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L28.4%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R28.6%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R29.1%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L29.3%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L29.5%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L48.1%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L47.7%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L46.6%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L44.9%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L44.6%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R44.3%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 66.7% 3 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | — 0 | 100.0% 1 | 50.0% 2 | — 0 | 100.0% 2 | — 0 |
| 2025-26 | 23.7% 38 | 24.3% 37 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 30.0% 20 | 20.0% 10 | 12.5% 8 | 26.3% 19 | 21.1% 19 |
| 2024-25 | 33.3% 39 | 31.4% 35 | 50.0% 4 | — 0 | 33.3% 27 | 33.3% 9 | 33.3% 3 | 42.9% 14 | 25.0% 20 |
| 2023-24 | 25.8% 66 | 24.6% 65 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 21.3% 47 | 36.8% 19 | — 0 | 24.1% 29 | 20.7% 29 |
| Playoffs (all) | 40.0% 10 | 40.0% 10 | — 0 | — 0 | 44.4% 9 | 0.0% 1 | — 0 | 60.0% 5 | 20.0% 5 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden | 0–3 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 37.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
| Jason Dickinson | 1–2 | 33.3% | 32.8% | 32.8% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Quinton Byfield | 2–0 | 100.0% | 32.0% | 32.2% | unusual (z 2.1) |
| Matty Beniers | 1–1 | 50.0% | 37.0% | 37.0% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Wyatt Johnston | 1–1 | 50.0% | 36.8% | 36.8% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Adam Lowry | 0–2 | 0.0% | 36.3% | 36.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Bo Horvat | 0–2 | 0.0% | 37.8% | 37.6% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Andrew Copp | 1–1 | 50.0% | 27.3% | 27.4% | normal luck (z 0.7) |
| Nico Hischier | 1–1 | 50.0% | 23.7% | 23.8% | normal luck (z 0.9) |
| Connor McMichael | 0–2 | 0.0% | 39.5% | 39.3% | a bit unusual (z -1.1) |
| Michael McCarron | 0–2 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 31.6% | normal luck (z -1.0) |
| Ryan McLeod | 0–2 | 0.0% | 35.5% | 35.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | @ DET | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-10-01 | vs TBL | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | @ BOS | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-04-11 | @ DAL | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | vs MTL | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | vs NJD | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-25 | @ TOR | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-19 | @ CBJ | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-18 | vs NJD | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| 2026-03-05 | vs TOR | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
- 2026-10-04 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (29%), Kevin Stenlund (32%)0.2 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-06 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (34%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (29%)0.2 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-09 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (32%), Boone Jenner (35%)0.2 FOW 0–1
- 2026-10-11 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (41%), Aatu Räty (30%)0.2 FOW 0–1
FAQ
What is Alexis Lafrenière's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Alexis Lafrenière's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Alexis Lafrenière win tonight?
When Alexis Lafrenière has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Alexis Lafrenière better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.