Draw Duel
Joe Pavelski faceoff stats, 2023-24
DAL · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
48.7%
90%: 45.0%–52.4% vs an average regular, on 820 draws since 2023-24
2023-24 FO%
51.1%
355 won of 695 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.6% / 35.5%
532 strong-side, 31 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Pavelski wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2023-24 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| OZ right | 243 | 117 | 48.1% |
| NZ left (att.) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 32 | 15 | 46.9% |
| Centre | 132 | 75 | 56.8% |
| NZ left (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 27 | 15 | 55.6% |
| DZ left | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
| DZ right | 230 | 122 | 53.0% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R40.2%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L40.5%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R41.2%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L41.5%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.7%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L41.7%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L61.6%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L61.3%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L60.1%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L58.5%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L58.2%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.9%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 51.1% 695 | 51.5% 594 | 51.7% 87 | 28.6% 14 | 48.3% 259 | 54.4% 195 | 51.5% 241 | 50.6% 532 | 35.5% 31 |
| Playoffs (all) | 47.2% 125 | 48.6% 111 | 50.0% 8 | 16.7% 6 | 41.7% 36 | 51.3% 39 | 48.0% 50 | 47.5% 101 | 50.0% 4 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl | 19–15 | 55.9% | 44.8% | 45.5% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Connor McDavid | 12–12 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 49.8% | normal luck (z 0.0) |
| Robert Thomas | 9–9 | 50.0% | 49.1% | 49.2% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Anze Kopitar | 5–11 | 31.3% | 42.9% | 42.5% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Chandler Stephenson | 10–6 | 62.5% | 46.2% | 46.7% | a bit unusual (z 1.3) |
| Jason Dickinson | 8–7 | 53.3% | 48.2% | 48.4% | normal luck (z 0.4) |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | 7–8 | 46.7% | 49.0% | 48.9% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Mikael Granlund | 7–8 | 46.7% | 50.6% | 50.5% | normal luck (z -0.3) |
| Casey Mittelstadt | 6–9 | 40.0% | 53.4% | 53.0% | a bit unusual (z -1.0) |
| Jack Eichel | 8–6 | 57.1% | 53.8% | 53.9% | normal luck (z 0.3) |
| Sidney Crosby | 3–10 | 23.1% | 45.7% | 45.2% | a bit unusual (z -1.6) |
| Adam Henrique | 5–8 | 38.5% | 45.6% | 45.4% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-02 | @ EDM | 4 | 7 | 57.1% |
| 2024-05-31 | vs EDM | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2024-05-29 | @ EDM | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2024-05-27 | @ EDM | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2024-05-25 | vs EDM | 11 | 18 | 61.1% |
| 2024-05-23 | vs EDM | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2024-05-17 | @ COL | 9 | 17 | 52.9% |
| 2024-05-15 | vs COL | 4 | 8 | 50.0% |
| 2024-05-13 | @ COL | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| 2024-05-05 | vs VGK | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Joe Pavelski's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Joe Pavelski's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Joe Pavelski win tonight?
When Joe Pavelski has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Joe Pavelski better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.