Draw Duel
Matthew Poitras faceoff stats, 2025-26
BOS · C · Right shot · full player page
Model rating
45.8%
90%: 41.6%–50.1% vs an average regular, on 401 draws since 2023-24
2025-26 FO%
38.9%
7 won of 18 (regular season)
Strong / weak side
50.0% / —
8 strong-side, 0 weak-side draws this season
Next game
No projection scheduled.
Where Poitras wins draws
Win % at every dot, 2025-26 and 2024-25 regular season, in his own attacking direction.
Show as a table
| Dot | Draws | Won | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|
| OZ left | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| OZ right | 55 | 24 | 43.6% |
| NZ left (att.) | 3 | 0 | 0.0% |
| NZ right (att.) | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| Centre | 38 | 13 | 34.2% |
| NZ left (def.) | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| NZ right (def.) | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| DZ left | 2 | 1 | 50.0% |
| DZ right | 17 | 9 | 52.9% |
Toughest and easiest opponents
Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.
Toughest
- Claude Giroux OTT · R37.6%
- Aatu Räty VAN · L37.7%
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R38.5%
- J.T. Miller NYR · L38.8%
- Vincent Trocheck UTA · R39.0%
- Auston Matthews TOR · L39.0%
Easiest
- Jack Hughes NJD · L58.9%
- Noah Ostlund BUF · L58.5%
- Trevor Zegras PHI · L57.4%
- Danila Yurov MIN · L55.7%
- Pavel Buchnevich STL · L55.4%
- Calum Ritchie NYI · R55.1%
Splits by season
| Season | All | EV | PP | PK | OZ | NZ | DZ | Strong | Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 38.9% 18 | 35.3% 17 | 100.0% 1 | — 0 | 50.0% 4 | 38.5% 13 | 0.0% 1 | 50.0% 8 | — 0 |
| 2024-25 | 45.7% 129 | 45.2% 126 | 66.7% 3 | — 0 | 42.4% 59 | 46.2% 52 | 55.6% 18 | 51.2% 86 | 33.3% 15 |
| 2023-24 | 43.7% 254 | 43.3% 245 | 50.0% 6 | 66.7% 3 | 38.7% 93 | 43.9% 98 | 50.8% 63 | 44.2% 156 | 39.4% 33 |
Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.
Head-to-head, last three seasons
Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.
| Opponent | Record | Raw | Model | Blended | Unusual? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl | 4–8 | 33.3% | 40.2% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Nick Suzuki | 1–8 | 11.1% | 43.6% | 43.0% | a bit unusual (z -2.0) |
| Jason Dickinson | 3–5 | 37.5% | 45.5% | 45.4% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Joseph Veleno | 2–6 | 25.0% | 46.1% | 45.8% | a bit unusual (z -1.2) |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–6 | 25.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | normal luck (z -0.9) |
| Anton Lundell | 6–2 | 75.0% | 44.6% | 45.1% | a bit unusual (z 1.7) |
| Nico Sturm | 3–4 | 42.9% | 39.6% | 39.6% | normal luck (z 0.2) |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–4 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.4% | normal luck (z -0.1) |
| Mason McTavish | 3–4 | 42.9% | 46.3% | 46.3% | normal luck (z -0.2) |
| Anze Kopitar | 3–4 | 42.9% | 40.5% | 40.5% | normal luck (z 0.1) |
| Andrew Copp | 2–4 | 33.3% | 44.3% | 44.1% | normal luck (z -0.5) |
| Vincent Trocheck | 1–5 | 16.7% | 44.7% | 44.4% | a bit unusual (z -1.4) |
Last 10 games
| Date | Opp | FOW | Draws | FO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | @ FLA | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| 2026-02-01 | @ TBL | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | vs PHI | 2 | 7 | 28.6% |
| 2025-03-06 | @ CAR | 3 | 8 | 37.5% |
| 2025-03-04 | vs NSH | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| 2025-03-02 | @ MIN | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
| 2025-03-01 | @ PIT | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2025-02-27 | vs NYI | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| 2025-02-25 | vs TOR | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| 2025-02-22 | vs ANA | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
Projected faceoffs won
No upcoming games projected.
FAQ
What is Matthew Poitras's faceoff percentage?
The season line above shows Matthew Poitras's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.
How many faceoffs will Matthew Poitras win tonight?
When Matthew Poitras has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.
Is Matthew Poitras better on his strong side?
Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.