Draw Duel

Joseph Veleno faceoff stats, 2025-26

NYR · C · Left shot · full player page

Model rating

48.4%

90%: 45.8%–51.0% vs an average regular, on 1,448 draws since 2023-24

2025-26 FO%

51.6%

163 won of 316 (regular season)

Strong / weak side

56.3% / 34.0%

213 strong-side, 50 weak-side draws this season

Next game

7.4 FOW

2026-10-04 vs UTA: 15 draws at 51.1%, range 3–12

Where Veleno wins draws

Win % at every dot, 2025-26 regular season, in his own attacking direction.

Offensive zone at the right, his left at the top. Warm = above 50%, cool = below; bigger circles = more draws. Hollow circles have under 10 draws.

Show as a table

Joseph Veleno faceoff win % by dot
Dot	Draws	Won	FO%
OZ left	78	38	48.7%
OZ right	15	4	26.7%
NZ left (att.)	14	10	71.4%
NZ right (att.)	9	4	44.4%
Centre	53	26	49.1%
NZ left (def.)	12	7	58.3%
NZ right (def.)	6	1	16.7%
DZ left	109	65	59.6%
DZ right	20	8	40.0%

Toughest and easiest opponents

Model win % against today's regular centres, averaged over home and road and every dot. This is a prediction, not his record.

Toughest

Claude Giroux OTT · R39.7%
Aatu Räty VAN · L40.4%
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI · R40.8%
Vincent Trocheck UTA · R41.2%
J.T. Miller NYR · L41.4%
Auston Matthews TOR · L41.6%

Easiest

Jack Hughes NJD · L61.0%
Noah Ostlund BUF · L60.7%
Trevor Zegras PHI · L59.7%
Danila Yurov MIN · L58.0%
Calum Ritchie NYI · R57.7%
Pavel Buchnevich STL · L57.7%

Splits by season

Faceoff win % by season and situation, with draws taken.
Season	All	EV	PP	PK	OZ	NZ	DZ	Strong	Weak
2026-27	53.8% 39	56.7% 30	— 0	44.4% 9	33.3% 6	61.5% 13	55.0% 20	55.2% 29	50.0% 4
2025-26	51.6% 316	53.0% 285	— 0	38.7% 31	45.2% 93	51.1% 94	56.6% 129	56.3% 213	34.0% 50
2024-25	46.9% 429	47.1% 420	100.0% 1	25.0% 8	46.2% 104	49.0% 151	45.4% 174	59.3% 182	33.6% 152
2023-24	49.0% 622	48.4% 531	56.3% 64	44.4% 27	46.7% 199	50.2% 209	50.0% 214	52.2% 291	43.1% 202
Playoffs (all)	61.9% 42	61.9% 42	— 0	— 0	72.2% 18	62.5% 16	37.5% 8	67.7% 31	57.1% 7

Small numbers are draws taken. Strong = his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots, in his own attacking direction); centre-ice draws count in neither.

Head-to-head, last three seasons

Raw records against his most frequent opponents next to what the model expected at the dots they actually met at. The blended number moves the model toward the record by n / (n + 500), because pair-specific edges are tiny (about ±2 points) and most of a lopsided record is luck.

Head-to-head faceoff records with model expectation and shrunk estimate.
Opponent	Record	Raw	Model	Blended	Unusual?
Sidney Crosby	12–13	48.0%	44.8%	45.0%	normal luck (z 0.3)
Mark Jankowski	10–8	55.6%	49.2%	49.4%	normal luck (z 0.5)
Dylan Strome	9–7	56.3%	45.6%	45.9%	normal luck (z 0.9)
Nick Paul	6–7	46.2%	42.9%	43.0%	normal luck (z 0.2)
Tage Thompson	8–5	61.5%	58.2%	58.3%	normal luck (z 0.2)
Sean Couturier	2–10	16.7%	42.1%	41.5%	a bit unusual (z -1.8)
Adam Lowry	4–8	33.3%	47.3%	47.0%	normal luck (z -1.0)
Mark Scheifele	8–4	66.7%	53.7%	54.0%	normal luck (z 0.9)
Sean Kuraly	5–7	41.7%	46.8%	46.6%	normal luck (z -0.4)
Dylan Cozens	6–5	54.5%	51.0%	51.1%	normal luck (z 0.2)
Jordan Staal	4–7	36.4%	43.8%	43.6%	normal luck (z -0.5)
Adam Fantilli	7–3	70.0%	54.2%	54.5%	a bit unusual (z 1.0)

Last 10 games

Faceoffs taken and won in his last ten games.
Date	Opp	FOW	Draws	FO%
2026-10-02	@ DET	7	13	53.8%
2026-10-01	vs TBL	10	15	66.7%
2026-09-29	@ BOS	4	11	36.4%
2026-05-29	@ CAR	4	5	80.0%
2026-05-27	vs CAR	3	4	75.0%
2026-05-25	vs CAR	5	11	45.5%
2026-05-16	vs BUF	0	1	0.0%
2026-05-14	@ BUF	3	5	60.0%
2026-05-12	vs BUF	1	3	33.3%
2026-05-10	vs BUF	5	5	100.0%

Projected faceoffs won

2026-10-04 vs UTA likely opponents: Vincent Trocheck (42%), Kevin Stenlund (45%)7.4 FOW 3–12
2026-10-06 vs NYI likely opponents: Bo Horvat (48%), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (42%)6.7 FOW 3–11
2026-10-09 vs WSH likely opponents: Dylan Strome (46%), Boone Jenner (49%)7.2 FOW 3–11
2026-10-11 vs VAN likely opponents: Elias Pettersson (56%), Aatu Räty (44%)7.5 FOW 3–12

FAQ

What is Joseph Veleno's faceoff percentage?

The season line above shows Joseph Veleno's raw faceoff wins and percentage this season. The model rating beside it is his expected win rate against an average regular centre at a neutral dot, adjusted for opponents, home ice and dot side, with a 90% interval.

How many faceoffs will Joseph Veleno win tonight?

When Joseph Veleno has a game scheduled, the projection above gives expected draws, expected win rate against tonight's likely opposing centres, and a 10th–90th percentile range of faceoffs won. Projections update nightly.

Is Joseph Veleno better on his strong side?

Almost every centre is. The strong/weak split above compares his win rate on his strong-side dots (a left shot's left dots) with his weak-side dots. League-wide, strong-side takers win about 52.6% and weak-side takers about 44.9%.