Who to start · 2025-26
Anthony Cirelli vs Sebastian Aho
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Anthony Cirelli's 1.67.
Cirelli had 52 points in 71 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games.
This week Cirelli has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Aho has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Aho for 2.2 ESPN points to Cirelli's 1.2.
Sebastian Aho has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Cirelli's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1052, Goals above expected +3.0, Luck Meter +50.
Aho's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 48.2%, Transition attempts /60 1.26, Power-play share 68.4%.
Head to head on the dot, Cirelli leads Aho 55–38.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 6 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Anthony Cirelli
1.67
fantasy points per game
Sebastian Aho
2.01
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Sebastian Aho has the edge.
| Points per game from | Cirelli | Aho |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.38 | 0.59 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.37 | 0.16 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Cirelli vs Aho
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Cirelli 2G 5A, 41 SOG · Aho 7G 12A, 68 SOG
Cirelli's offensive zone 28–9 · neutral 15–13 · Cirelli's defensive zone 12–16 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Cirelli's side)
9:05 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Cirelli's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–9
- 55.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.7
- 47.6%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Cirelli | Aho |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | TBL 2–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-12-20 | TBL 6–4 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-03-11 | TBL 1–4 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-07 | TBL 3–2 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-11 | TBL 4–1 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-24 | TBL 8–2 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-11 | TBL 0–4 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-10-24 | TBL 3–0 CAR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-28 | TBL 4–0 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-05 | TBL 0–6 CAR | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-03-29 | TBL 4–3 CAR | 0G 2A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-03-22 | TBL 2–3 CAR | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 29 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Anthony Cirelli
2games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 15th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.2 ptsOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Sebastian Aho
3games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs WSHOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Logan Thompson (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ PHIB2B2.2 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to CSchedule edge −8.7 win%vs Joseph Woll (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Anthony Cirelli or Sebastian Aho in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Sebastian Aho projects to 2.01 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Anthony Cirelli's 1.67. Cirelli had 52 points in 71 games; Aho had 80 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Anthony Cirelli or Sebastian Aho?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Sebastian Aho leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Cirelli and Aho done against each other?
- In 29 games against each other in our data, Cirelli's team went 16–13. Cirelli had 7 points (2 goals) and Aho had 19 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Cirelli or Aho?
- Against each other, Cirelli has won 55 and Aho 38 of their 93 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →