Who to start · 2025-26
Auston Matthews vs Brock Nelson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brock Nelson's 2.23.
Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Nelson had 65 in 81 games.
This week Matthews has 1 game left; Nelson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 22 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Matthews's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.09, Faceoff win % 59.7%, Draw Equity /100 +0.103.
Nelson's biggest edges: Corsi 57.5%, Fenwick 57.3%, Goals above expected +1.1.
Head to head on the dot, Nelson leads Matthews 28–26.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Auston Matthews
2.31
fantasy points per game
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matthews | Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.79 | 0.89 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.63 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matthews vs Nelson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matthews 11G 10A, 84 SOG · Nelson 7G 10A, 37 SOG
Matthews's offensive zone 10–6 · neutral 7–7 · Matthews's defensive zone 9–15 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)
6:36 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–9
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.5
- 19.7%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matthews | Nelson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | TOR 1–4 COL | 0G 0A 7S | 3G 0A 4S |
| 2026-01-12 | TOR 4–3 COL | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-03-19 | TOR 2–1 COL | 1G 0A 8S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-08 | TOR 4–7 COL | 0G 3A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-02-05 | TOR 2–3 NYI | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-01-11 | TOR 3–4 NYI | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-12-11 | TOR 3–4 NYI | 1G 0A 11S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-03-21 | TOR 2–7 NYI | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-01-23 | TOR 5–2 NYI | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-11-21 | TOR 2–3 NYI | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-01-22 | TOR 3–1 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-11-21 | TOR 3–0 NYI | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 20 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Auston Matthews
3games (1 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Auston Matthews or Brock Nelson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brock Nelson's 2.23. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Nelson had 65 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Auston Matthews or Brock Nelson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 22 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matthews and Nelson done against each other?
- In 20 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 10–10. Matthews had 21 points (11 goals) and Nelson had 17 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Nelson?
- Against each other, Matthews has won 26 and Nelson 28 of their 54 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →