Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Eeli Tolvanen
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Tolvanen had 36 in 78 games.
This week Rust has no games left; Tolvanen has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Tolvanen for 1.3 ESPN points to Rust's 0.0.
Bryan Rust has the better number in 27 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.5, Offensive-zone start % 63.3%, High-danger chances 51.4%.
Tolvanen's biggest edges: Hits 187, Transition attempts /60 1.47, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.010.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 2 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Eeli Tolvanen
1.64
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Tolvanen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.31 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Tolvanen
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 1G 1A, 12 SOG · Tolvanen 3G 0A, 11 SOG
Rust blocked 1 of Tolvanen's shots; Tolvanen blocked 0 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
13:01 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 14–14
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.5
- 44.2%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Tolvanen |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | PIT 6–3 SEA | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-22 | PIT 2–3 SEA | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-14 | PIT 2–4 SEA | 1G 0A 4S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-15 | PIT 3–0 SEA | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-10 | PIT 3–2 NSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-03-15 | PIT 1–4 NSH | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (0 left)
0.0proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTLOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Eeli Tolvanen
4games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to RWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 4th-most FP to RWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BOpp allows 10th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.3 ptsOpp allows the fewest FP to RWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Eeli Tolvanen in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Eeli Tolvanen's 1.71. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Tolvanen had 36 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Eeli Tolvanen?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 27 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Tolvanen done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 3–3. Rust had 2 points (1 goals) and Tolvanen had 3 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →